Today’s Top Story

A top Bolivian general, Juan Jose Zuniga, and allied members of the military attempted a coup yesterday, storming the presidential palace in La Paz before quickly retreating less than three hours later. Zuniga, who had been dismissed from his position as commander of Bolivia’s army earlier this week, was promptly taken into custody. (New York Times)

Our Take

Although the attempted coup in Bolivia is shocking and alarming, it was also not a terribly serious plot. Zuniga appears to be merely a disgruntled reassigned general and clearly did not have much support. Still, that does not mean the implications aren’t serious, especially because yesterday’s events come at a time of volatility for Bolivia.

In the past few years, Bolivian politics has been defined by the rivalry between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, both members of the long-dominant Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party. The two had been allies, and Arce was Morales’ handpicked successor after the former president was ousted in the political crisis that followed the country’s controversial 2019 election. Now, though, Arce and Morales are battling each other for control of MAS in order to claim the party’s nomination in next year’s presidential vote.

Still, despite the party’s divisions, MAS remains solidly popular, and Morales immediately condemned the attempted coup yesterday. If anything, yesterday’s events underscore how the Arce-Morales rivalry is obscuring other fault lines in Bolivian politics that pose serious challenges for the country’s democracy.

Prominent among them is the politicization of the judiciary—a central arena of the Arce-Morales rivalry—but also its weaponization. In his failed plot, Zuniga appealed to that issue, calling for the release of opposition figures Luis Fernando Camacho and former interim President Jeanine Anez, both of whom are currently being detained for their role in Morales’ ouster.

There’s also the polarization surrounding Morales, who remains a divisive figure due to his unconstitutional bid for a third term in 2019, which eventually led to his ouster. Now, despite a court ruling that says he can’t run again next year, he is still gunning for MAS’ nomination, resulting in the current fracturing of the party. Indeed, the cause of Zuniga’s dismissal earlier this week was his public declaration that Morales should not return to the presidency and that he was ready to arrest Morales in the event he tried, a clear overstep of civil-military relations.

It is a reassuring sign for Bolivia’s electoral democracy that Zuniga received so little support yesterday—even Anez condemned the plot—but the country continues to suffer from democratic erosion in these other important ways. With severe economic challenges and political paralysis stemming from the Arce-Morales rivalry as well, Bolivia is almost certain to face more instability in the years to come.

On Our Radar

Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez was sentenced in the U.S. yesterday to 45 years in prison for his role in a massive drug-trafficking conspiracy during his eight years as president. Hernandez was arrested just two weeks after leaving office in 2022.

Before and while he was president, Hernandez helped traffic hundreds of tons of cocaine, accepted millions of dollars in bribes, provided information from the Honduran police and military to drug traffickers, and used police and military forces to protect drug shipments. As Christine Wade wrote following his arrest, Hernandez’s presidency turned Honduras into a full-blown narco-state.

Honduras’ Hernandez Will Face Justice, but His Narco-State Could Live On

Feb. 24, 2022 | The arrest of former President Hernandez signals a watershed moment for Honduras’ political future, even as the challenges he left behind remain. Read more.

Mongolia will hold parliamentary elections tomorrow, the first since the body was expanded by 50 seats and switched to a new mixed electoral system that could allow for more representation from smaller parties.

The elections also come against the backdrop of popular discontent in the country. Many Mongolians increasingly see the government as incapable of addressing the country’s problems, and a corruption scandal at the end of 2022 led to protests in the capital. As Julian Dierkes wrote at the time, although those protests eventually fizzled out, they underscored growing frustration, particularly among young people.

In Mongolia, a difficult political and economic situation is made even more challenging by shifting relations with China and Russia

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Jan. 19, 2023 | Mongolia’s relations with China and Russia may yet define an already challenging year for the country’s politics and economy. Read more.

Thousands of junior doctors in the U.K. began a five-day strike today, marking their 11th walkout amid a pay dispute with the government that began in 2022. Elections next week will almost certainly usher in a new government led by the Labour Party, which many assume will be better positioned to handle strikes. But as Rebecca Gumbrell-McCormick wrote in 2022, the Labour Party’s shift toward the center in recent years has complicated its relations with the unions that were long its historical allies.

Brazil’s Supreme Court decriminalized possession of marijuana for personal use yesterday, although sales of the drug will remain illegal. The ruling is just the latest in a wave of relaxed rules around marijuana usage across the globe, a trend that has included some form of full legalization in several countries. Still, as Benoît Gomis wrote in 2022, legalization presents many of its own problems.

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