Today’s Top Story
Three upcoming elections—in the United States, France and Iran—all present worrisome prospects on the horizon for global politics.
In the United States, the first debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump took place yesterday and quickly reinforced concerns about Biden’s age. There are still no signs that Biden lacks any cognitive ability to make policy decisions, but yesterday’s debate put on stark display the physical toll that aging—Biden is 81 years old, compared to Trump’s 78—has taken on the president.
Those concerns, now more prominent than ever before, have put Biden on the backfoot heading into the presidential election in November. Under normal circumstances, at least from a foreign policy perspective, Biden’s first term likely would have strengthened him heading into a rematch against a chaotic, populist candidate like Trump. But in today’s political climate, the White House’s return to stable policies and relations, including support for U.S. allies Ukraine and Israel, are not resonating with swing voters, and not even with some parts of Biden’s own coalition.
Meanwhile, French voters head to the polls Sunday for the first round of legislative elections that look set to either put the far right in power or throw the country into the political paralysis of a hung parliament. The full result won’t be clear until July 7, when the second round is held, but all of the most likely scenarios appear to be a rebuke of French President Emmanuel Macron.
That will leave France in a very different position than just two years, when Macron was dubbed the de facto leader of Europe. Now, following these elections, France’s role in Europe and the West will almost certainly be weakened. For Brussels, that shift could not come at a worse time, as the EU looks to play a bigger geopolitical role on the world stage, and when questions are once again swirling about Brussels’ ability to shore up counter-momentum against recent Russian gains in the war in Ukraine.
All of this raises the stakes in Iran’s early presidential election, the first round of which is being held today. As we’ve written about before, there is currently a degree of strategic trust between Tehran and Washington that has so far prevented a regional conflagration of the war in Gaza. That trust now hangs in the balance.
To be sure, there is a chance that U.S.-Iran relations could improve following the election—the inclusion of a single reformist candidate opened the door for that. In all likelihood, though, the winner will be another conservative hardliner, especially after two hardline candidates dropped out yesterday to consolidate their faction’s vote. And with the specter that Washington will once again adopt a hostile posture toward Tehran again if Trump returns to the White House, the Iranian regime is unlikely to allow any increased engagement with the U.S. anyway.
None of these outcomes are certain today, and elections even in Iran have been known to surprise. But the prospects for the global order to move in a positive direction in the coming years seem less likely than they did even 24 hours ago.
On Our Radar
Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum announced additional members of her future cabinet yesterday, including Luz Elena Gonzalez, an expert in sustainable development, as the next secretary of energy.
While Sheinbaum’s agenda is expected to mostly follow in the footsteps of her predecessor and mentor, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, her approach will likely be markedly different. As Frida Ghitis noted in March, while the current president has stood in the way of renewable energy development, Sheinbaum is a committed environmentalist and holds a doctorate in energy engineering.
Sheinbaum Won’t Be Mexico’s AMLO 2.0
March 7, 2024 | Claudia Sheinbaum has downplayed the distinctions between her and her mentor, AMLO. But there are important differences between the two. Read more.
The Chinese Communist Party has expelled two former defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, for corruption following a monthslong investigation by the country’s central military commision. Wei served as defense minister from 2018 to 2023 and was replaced by Li, who was dismissed in October two months after disappearing from public view.
The dismissals come at a time when President Xi Jinping is leading a crackdown on corruption in the military, in part an expression of broader dissatisfaction with the country’s armed forces. As Paul Poast wrote last year, that dissatisfaction isn’t specific to China, and it speaks to how countries are responding to their new places in a changing global order, leading to a broad crisis in civil-military relations.
The Crisis in Civil-Military Relations Is Going Global
Sep. 29, 2023 | The world’s major powers, including the U.S., Russia and China, all seem to be facing civil-military crises. What’s going on? Read more.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa began emergency talks yesterday with the leader of the Democratic Alliance party after he threatened to pull out of the coalition government, just two weeks after it was formed. Read more about the shaky coalition, formed by parties with deep, intractable differences, in this briefing by Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé.
Japanese and Philippine officials will meet in Manila next month, reportedly to finalize a defense pact between the two countries. Read more about how the Philippines is responding to increased Chinese aggression in the South China Sea by forming a network of security agreements in this recent Daily Review.
Upcoming Elections
Mauritania votes in a presidential election tomorrow. Read a preview from AP here.
As mentioned above, France votes in the first round of legislative elections Sunday. Read more on why President Macron called the snap vote in this Daily Review.
The United Kingdom heads to the polls for parliamentary elections on Thursday, July 4. Read about how the vote could reconfigure U.K. politics in this column by Alexander Clarkson.
More from WPR
- Amanda Coakley on Poland’s post-PiS era.
- Paul Poast on the world’s consolidating alliances.
- Zachary Popovich on Ukraine’s domestic defense industry.
- Richard Gowan on the future of British multilateralism.