Canada expelled the top diplomat from India in the country as well as five others, saying they were part of a campaign of violence and intimidation against Indian dissidents—including the assassination last year of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar—at the behest of the Indian government. New Delhi denied the allegations and reciprocated, expelling six Canadian diplomats. (New York Times)
Although Canada did not publicly reveal the details of its case against the Indian government and its diplomats, the fact that it was willing to go public with such serious allegations suggests that Ottawa has strong evidence to support its claims. In addition to the accusation made last year about India’s involvement in the Nijjar assassination, Canada now alleges that Indian diplomats have been collecting information about Canadians and passing it on to organized criminal networks functioning as enforcers, and that violence and intimidation by the Indian government has actually increased since last year.
To be clear, there is an assumption and expectation that diplomatic delegations everywhere include some personnel involved in espionage—including for keeping tabs on expat dissidents—even among partners and allies. What Canada is alleging here, though, crosses a very serious line into transnational repression.
Assuming that Canada’s case has substance, that would underscore the degree to which Indian PM Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda has emboldened the Indian government to not only target dissidents at home—an issue that has been reported on for years—but abroad as well. It’s just one aspect of the broader democratic backsliding seen in India under Modi, which some have speculated could damage New Delhi’s international standing, particularly among Western democracies.
And yet, Canada’s initial accusation last year did not have a significant impact on India’s relations with the West, even after U.S. intelligence tacitly admitted that Nijjar’s assassination was not an isolated case. That underscores just how much value the West sees in India as a geopolitical partner for countering China in Asia.
Of course, Canada’s allegations yesterday are broader and much more serious than the accusation made last September. The bilateral tensions between the countries, already high, could very well escalate further, especially if strong evidence against the Indian government becomes public. That would also exact a reputational cost for India that could complicate continued engagement with the Modi government.
More broadly, the allegations also further underscore the degree to which the global norms and rules against transnational repression have been significantly eroded in recent years. States, both democratic and authoritarian, appear to be more comfortable targeting dissidents abroad. That is an alarming trend, because it violates not only human rights but also sovereignty, which always comes with the potential for volatile and unpredictable effects on international affairs.