After launching a major and successful counteroffensive in early September, Ukraine has momentum on its side in the war against Russia. With each Ukrainian victory, Russian forces are retreating and surrendering—faster, it seems, than new Russian troops can be mobilized and thrown into the front.
But while applauding Ukraine’s success is understandable, we are actually entering the most dangerous portion of the war. A great concern, present since the beginning of the war, is emerging with more urgency: Will Russia use a nuclear weapon to stop Ukraine’s armed forces in their tracks?
The logic, known as “escalate to deescalate,” is that by using a low-yield, “tactical” nuclear weapon as a demonstration of its willingness to cross the nuclear threshold, Russia would induce Kyiv to pursue cease-fire negotiations to avoid further escalation. Such a desperate measure, if successful, would enable Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid a humiliating defeat and even claim a form of victory, thereby protecting him from potential domestic threats to his grip on power.