There have been few silver linings of late for Germany’s ruling Ampelkoalition, or traffic-light coalition, comprising Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, the market-friendly Free Democrats and the Greens. The coalition’s domestic standing has continued its downward trajectory amid economic headwinds and budgetary crises. International instability still threatens peace and prosperity. And in June, the results of the European Parliament elections only added to the political malaise gripping Berlin.
In that vote, the far-right party Alternative for Germany managed to finish second, while each of the three governing parties experienced declines in support. In fact, across the European Union, populist parties enjoyed an upward trend, thanks in part to their energized bases showing up for what is historically a low-turnout election. The continued gradual shift to the populist right was a reminder to the German political establishment that it must meet an ever-evolving set of challenges with uncomfortably slim margins of support.
In highlighting the governing coalition’s domestic weakness, the results also call into question the EU’s continued ability to depend on Berlin as a motor driving an affirmative agenda in Brussels. Germany’s first-ever National Security Strategy, prepared by the Ampelkoalition last year, declared its support for “a united European Union that is capable of acting globally and uses its influence to shape the rules-based international order.” As the EU assembles its post-election constituent parts, observers are quietly holding out hope that Berlin will remain a leading player able to shape policy and strengthen the bloc as a viable vehicle to advance German interests.