This week, Iran launched a barrage of almost 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, in response to a series of assassinations carried out by Israel against Iranian military leaders and senior members of the Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah. The attack came days after a massive Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut and the same week that Israel began a limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
Following the missile attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “Iran made a big mistake tonight,” while promising that the Islamic Republic “will pay.” An array of U.S. elected officials and policymakers expressed their support for Israel. Sen. Lindsey Graham called on the administration of President Joe Biden to coordinate “an overwhelming response with Israel.” For his part, Biden asserted that the U.S. is “fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel.” While Israel has not yet taken action, its response is imminent, and many anticipate that it will show less restraint than it did back in April, when the two sides also traded tit-for-tat missile and air strikes.
I wrote back in mid-August that there was a declining risk of the war in Gaza expanding into a regional conflict. I stood by that assessment following subsequent rocket exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah back in late August. But in light of this week’s events, my argument needs to be reconsidered.