One year into the war on Gaza, Palestine and the issue of Palestinian self-determination is back on the international agenda. The cost, however, has been enormously high. Israel’s conduct of the war has left tens of thousands of Gazans killed, many more injured and displaced, and the entire civilian infrastructure destroyed, fueling accusations of war crimes by the International Criminal Court and accusations of genocide before the International Court of Justice.
If responsibility for returning the Palestinian cause to the spotlight goes to Hamas, so too does a considerable share of the blame for the humanitarian costs of the past year. The Israeli response to the group’s attack on Oct. 7, 2023, spiraled beyond anyone’s initial expectations, not least Hamas. How the war will end remains an open question, as does any attempt to predict in what state Hamas will emerge from it. That is even more the case following the killing last week of Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, amid an ongoing intensification of Israeli strikes there.
A lot will depend on Israel’s and Hamas’ balance sheets of losses and gains once the fighting ends. But Hamas’ future fortunes will be only partially determined by the movement’s military, political and administrative capacity after the war. More important will be the positions of Israel, the U.S. and regional players, which will ultimately have a major role in shaping the movement’s future.