Despite the escalating regional conflict at its doorstep in neighboring Gaza, Egypt’s future has become inexorably tied to events far south of its borders.
With Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, on the Blue Nile having become a fait accompli, Egypt had already been feeling the need to step up its presence in the Horn of Africa. But the need to exert influence in the region became more urgent after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel last year and the ensuing Israeli offensive in Gaza.
In a stated bid to support Hamas, the Yemen-based Houthi militia has regularly attacked commercial shipping on the Red Sea. This has reduced transit through the maritime lane leading to the Suez Canal, cutting canal crossings by 66 percent and dealing a severe financial blow to the Egyptian economy.