French PM Michel Barnier submitted his resignation today after far-right and leftist lawmakers passed a no-confidence measure yesterday amid contentious budget negotiations. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to name a new PM quickly, potentially even today in a scheduled address to the nation. (New York Times; AP)
Our Take
Barnier’s fall was in many ways overdetermined. Macron chose him in September because he was one of the few viable political figures who could placate Macron’s minority parliamentary coalition comprising the center and center right, while also having a chance of mollifying the opposition enough to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis. But with Macron having alienated the leftist New Popular Front, NFP, coalition by skipping over it for the PM nomination following July’s elections, that ultimately left Barnier beholden to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, or RN, at a time when France is running short on time to address its financial troubles.
France needs to address its high deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio in order to comply with EU guidelines, and constitutionally the 2025 budget must be passed before the end of the year. Even after conceding to some of the demands made by Le Pen to soften the blow on the French population—and reduce public services to immigrants—Barnier’s proposal still included more than $40 billion in spending cuts and $20 billion in tax hikes.