The extraordinary collapse and fall of the Assad regime’s 50-year rule in Syria raises questions about justice for the many crimes former President Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez, unleashed on the country’s population over the past five decades. Even before civil war broke out in 2011, the regime was notorious for its disappearances, torture and executions of dissidents. In conducting the war, it engaged in war crimes and crimes against humanity, using chemical weapons, incendiary bombs and horrifyingly indiscriminate conventional “barrel bombs” in urban areas, in addition to intentionally targeting hospitals and schools, and starving the Syrian population.
Now, with the rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, having overrun the last remnants of the Syrian army and seized power in Damascus, Assad and his family have fled to Russia for safety from prosecution. That he may remain there with impunity for his many crimes has rankled human rights organizations and Syrian activists. As Annie Sparrow and Kenneth Roth note, “establishing a precedent of accountability for the atrocities of the past would be a significant way for the international community to signal expectations for the future.” Similarly, Johann Soufi said, “Impunity fuels the feeling of injustice and reinforces the desire for revenge between communities, perpetuating a cycle of violence.”
These sentiments are understandable. However political science research suggests that Assad’s departure and asylum in Russia is neither as bad for Syria nor as good for Assad as it may seem at first glance.