In January 2024, the military-led governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced their intention of leaving the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, triggering the regional grouping’s one-year withdrawal process. On Jan. 29, that period will come to an end, meaning that the three countries—which have since formed their own new regional group, the Alliance of Sahel States, or AES—will officially no longer be members of ECOWAS.
Nevertheless, at an ECOWAS summit in December, the bloc declared that it would extend a six-month grace period, during which Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger will be allowed to rejoin the group if they wish. During this time, ECOWAS, which has been fundamentally shaken by the AES countries’ withdrawal, will seek to encourage them to rethink their decision.
In reality, it is highly unlikely that the Sahelian states will be convinced to rejoin the grouping. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger all still resent the sanctions that ECOWAS imposed on them following the coups that brought their leaders to power. They also took offence over a proposed ECOWAS-led invasion of Niger to reinstate democratic rule following the coup there in 2023, even though plans for the intervention were ultimately abandoned due to insufficient support.