2025 Will Be a Year of Change for Africa’s Continental Leadership

2025 Will Be a Year of Change for Africa’s Continental Leadership
A viewer watches as former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga speaks during a live televised debate for the AU Commission chairperson seat, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (Sipa photo by James Wakibia via AP Images).

Travel within Africa is notoriously difficult and cumbersome, with delayed flights and long stopovers par for the course. Yet, with several major positions in African multilateral organizations becoming vacant this year, African diplomats will be expected to brave these obstacles and others as they crisscross the continent to lobby states for their preferred candidates. In February, the African Union will name the new members of its commission, including a successor to term-limited Moussa Faki, from Chad, as its chair. And in June, the African Development Bank, or AfDB, will name its ninth president to replace Nigeria’s Akinwunmi Adesina, who leaves after two terms in office.

These transitions will occur amid a fairly disruptive period in regional and global politics. Africa is a very different place than it was when Faki and Adesina took office a little over a decade ago. Great powers continue to seek influence on the continent, while forces within Africa push back via anti-neocolonial movements and governments, amid a return to Pan-Africanism but also threats to democracy in the form of military coups. At the same time, Western states are increasingly turning inward. On Jan. 20, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will return to the White House, with all the uncertainty that entails. And recent elections across Europe have seen the rise of parties advocating for more nationalist policies.

By contrast, African states have seldom had the luxury of looking inward, for a variety of reasons. Contiguous borders mean they need to keep tabs on any policy changes enacted by their neighbors in multiple directions. This interdependence has also led to a proliferation of regional economic communities, often overlapping, which means African states are often committed to several multilateral treaties and agreements at the same time. Furthermore, the fact that many ethnic groups and families straddle borders is a factor that states must actively consider when devising and carrying out policies.

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