The Diplomatic Scramble in Post-Assad Syria

The Diplomatic Scramble in Post-Assad Syria
A worker sets up a Syrian revolutionary flag at the entrance of the Umayyad Mosque ahead of Friday prayers in Damascus, Dec. 20, 2024 (AP photo by Leo Correa).

Three senior U.S. diplomats arrived in Damascus today to meet with representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, to discuss the transition process following the fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks ago. HTS remains on the U.S. list of terrorist groups but is now pushing to be removed. The U.S. has also not had diplomatic relations with Syria since 2012 and has not sent diplomats to the country in over a decade. (New York Times)

Our Take

This diplomatic engagement reflects the mad scramble by a number of outside powers to establish contact and communication with HTS. The surprise swiftness with which the Assad regime fell means that many external powers are still simply trying to determine the new lay of the land in Damascus and even what their objectives will be in the country going forward. One thing is already clear, though: They all would like to have influence in the new Syria.

As of now, it appears that Turkey has the most leverage with the transitional government in Damascus, largely because it had a head start. During the years in which HTS was confined to overseeing the Idlib province in northern Syria, Turkey provided indirect assistance to the group, managed the flow of international aid into the province and maintained a nearby military presence that prevented attacks by Syrian government forces.

As Long as There Is Territory to Fight Over, War Will Be With Us

As Long as There Is Territory to Fight Over, War Will Be With Us
A Ukrainian national guard serviceman of the Khartia brigade prepares to reload his D-20 cannon while firing toward Russian positions on the front line near Kharkiv, Ukraine, June 10, 2024 (AP photo by Evgeniy Maloletka).

The dramatic turn of events in Syria’s 13-year civil war has consumed the world’s attention for the past few weeks. A lightning rebel offensive ousted the country’s long-ruling dictator, Bashar al-Assad, and created the opportunity to end the country’s lengthy internal conflict. With hostilities still unfolding in parts of the country, lasting peace is far from certain, but the possibility of it alone is welcome news.

Given the drama in Syria, it was easy to overlook positive developments in another long-running war. On Dec. 4, the Ethiopian government reached a ceasefire with the Oromo Liberation Army, or OLA. Conflict between the government and various rebel groups in the Oromia region has been ongoing since the early 1970s, with the fighting between the Ethiopian government and the OLA having persisted after the Oromo Liberation Front, or OLF, splintered off following a peace deal in 2018. The conflict in Oromia was in addition to Ethiopia’s war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, and ongoing fighting in the Amhara region.

Sadly, there might be another reason that the ceasefire in Ethiopia attracted little attention, a reason with ominous implications for Syria and the other conflicts raging around the world: It didn’t last, as the terms of the agreement have already been violated. Moreover, the ceasefire only addressed one aspect of one of the conflicts afflicting Ethiopia and inflicting a devastating toll on its people.

Marcos’ All-In Bet on the U.S. Could Leave the Philippines Out in the Cold

,
Marcos’ All-In Bet on the U.S. Could Leave the Philippines Out in the Cold
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. meets with U.S. President Joe Biden, in New York, Sept. 22, 2022 (AP photo by Evan Vucci).

During his term in office from 2016 to 2022, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was best known for his brutal “war on drugs,” which became a license for massive extrajudicial killings of drug addicts and dealers, as well as many people with no connections to drugs at all. An investigation by the International Criminal Court into the campaign and Duterte’s role in it put the number of civilian casualties at between 12,000 and 30,000.

Duterte’s other main policy initiative as president did not attract as much global attention: From his first days in office, he tried to shift the focus of Philippine foreign and economic policy away from the United States—the country’s longtime ally—and toward China. This shift was not driven by domestic politics, as the Philippine public holds generally warm views of the U.S., but rather at least in part by Duterte’s personal animus toward Washington. Unfortunately, he wound up getting little for putting his faith in Beijing, while alienating Filipinos who had been promised a Chinese windfall.

Now, Duterte’s successor and political rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shifted Philippine foreign and economic policy 180 degrees, wholeheartedly embracing the U.S. instead of balancing between Washington and Beijing, as all other Southeast Asian states are doing. But with the imminent return of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to the White House in January, Marcos could ultimately find himself as economically and strategically sidelined by the U.S. as Duterte was by China.

Gisele Pelicot and France’s Revitalized #MeToo Movement

Gisele Pelicot and France’s Revitalized #MeToo Movement
Gisele Pelicot speaks to the press as she leaves the courtroom, in the Avignon courthouse, France, Dec. 19, 2024 (AP photo by Lewis Joly).

After a three-month trial in France that captured national and global attention, judges have sentenced Dominique Pelicot to 20 years in prison—the maximum allowed under French law—for routinely drugging and raping his wife, Gisele Pelicot, as well as inviting dozens of other men he found online to rape her as well. The court also convicted the 50 other defendants, most on rape charges. (Washington Post)

Our Take

When the details of the Pelicot case came to light, they shocked France and the world, in part because of the horrific nature of the crimes committed, but also because of who committed those crimes. The French news media dubbed the dozens of defendants Monsieur Tout-le-monde, or Mr. Everyman, because of how unremarkable and commonplace they all appeared. And the fact that they varied so widely in age, class, career and appearance was a clear reminder of the dangers of relying on stereotypes or preconceived notions about the perpetrators of sexual violence.

Within France, the case has also forced a broad reckoning with sexual violence against women. Despite attempts by activists to force the issue in the late 2010s, the #MeToo movement did not gain the same level of traction in France as it did in the United States. Soon after, a spike in the number of femicides in 2019 put the spotlight on the country’s domestic violence crisis. But while the issue faded from the headlines, the violence continued.

The U.N. Security Council Is Finding Rare Consensus on Syria—For Now

,
The U.N. Security Council Is Finding Rare Consensus on Syria—For Now
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmad al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) meets with the U.N.’s special envoy to Syria, Geir Pederson, in Damascus, Syria, Dec. 16, 2024 (photo released by the official Syrian news agency SANA via AP).

The Syrian civil war has been a constant source of contention in the United Nations Security Council since its outbreak in 2011. In the mid-2010s, the conflict was the dominant issue in the council, as Russia repeatedly used its veto to block Western resolutions aimed at pressuring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to engage with a U.N.-mediated peace process, reduce casualties and allow in humanitarian aid. In recent years, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have absorbed greater diplomatic attention, but council members have still met month after month to argue about Syria.

The sudden collapse of Assad’s regime has now created an unexpected opening for diplomats to strike a more constructive tone in New York. In closed consultations on Syria after Assad fled the country last week, all council members apparently took pragmatic positions, acknowledging the need to engage the country’s new powerbrokers in Damascus. This week the council released a press statement encouraging the U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, to work with all of the country’s various factions on an inclusive political process to define the nation’s future. This show of unity stands in sharp contrast not only to the council’s past spats over Syria, but also to its ongoing rifts on Gaza.

As a starting point for Pedersen’s efforts, council members have pointed to Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015, which called for “a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition.” The resolution, which Assad effectively ignored for most of a decade, lays out a set of guidelines—including protecting minorities and preparing for eventual elections—that still seem relevant. Rallying around this text also offers all council members, including Russia, a face-saving way to navigate the current uncertainty in Syria, rather than negotiating a new political approach.

Ghana’s Democracy Is Not the Outlier It Is Made Out to Be

Ghana’s Democracy Is Not the Outlier It Is Made Out to Be
A woman casts her ballot at a polling station, in Accra, Ghana, Dec. 7, 2024 (AP photo by Misper Apawu).

Ghana capped a year of opposition victories in elections around the world by returning John Mahama—a former president running as the opposition candidate—to the presidency in its Dec. 7 elections. Mahama, a four-time presidential nominee of the National Democratic Congress, or NDC, had been defeated by outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo during his first bid for re-election eight years ago. He subsequently lost a rematch against Akufo-Addo in 2020, before leading the opposition to a decisive victory against Akufo-Addo’s vice-president, Mahamadu Bawumia, earlier this month. After eight years in power, Akufo-Addo’s New Patriotic Party, NPP, now faces a reckoning over its worst-ever electoral performance and must come to grips with its new status as the leading opposition party.

Mahama’s victory has evoked comparisons to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who will similarly be returning to power after a stint out of office. It also adds to the anti-incumbent wave in what has been dubbed the “year of elections,” particularly in Africa. Opposition parties formed new governments in Senegal, Mauritius and Botswana, while long-ruling parties in Namibia and South Africa saw their governing majorities reduced, forcing them to form coalitions with erstwhile opposition parties.

Ghana’s citizens punished the ruling NPP for high inflation, environmental degradation caused by rampant illegal gold-mining—known as Galamsey—and repeated corruption indictments that left the impression of a political elite detached from the concerns of regular citizens. Ghana’s presidential elections have historically been closer, often needing to go to a run-off round, but the lack of turnout among NPP supporters left Bawumia in the position of conceding early on the day after the election.

China Won’t Lure Back Tourists Until Its Political Atmosphere Changes

China Won’t Lure Back Tourists Until Its Political Atmosphere Changes
Travelers wait in line at a check-in counter at Kunming Changshui International Airport, Kunming, China, March 22, 2022 (AP photo by Dake Kang).

China has announced an expansion of its visa-free travel program, which began last year and allows travelers from 54 countries, including the U.S., to enter China without prior visa approval if they are in transit to another country. The new policy raises the limit on how long those travelers can stay to 10 days, up from a maximum of six days.

This change by China’s government is a modest measure, but it is reflective of Beijing’s continued efforts to reestablish China as a destination for travelers amid a post-pandemic slump in the tourism industry. Since reopening its borders in late 2022, the country has not even come close to reaching pre-pandemic tourism levels, even as other popular destinations around the world reached new peaks due to pent-up demand once travel restrictions were lifted. The lack of spending by tourists only worsens the problems facing China’s economy.

Reinvigorating China’s tourism industry will likely be an uphill battle, though. Beijing’s draconian COVID-19 lockdown measures, which lasted nearly three years, exacerbated a growing perception—tied to geopolitical tensions in Western countries—of China as uninviting. Meanwhile, crackdowns on political dissent, the further tightening of space for free speech and high-profile arrests of foreign nationals in China have only compounded that view.

The result is a growing image among Western tourists—particularly Americans—of China as unsafe to visit for political reasons. That’s a problem for China from an economic perspective, but the decreased people-to-people exchange also has geopolitical implications. At a time of heightened tensions, the humanization of bilateral relations is an important way to build mutual understanding and defuse antagonism, with tourism one way to contribute toward that goal. That makes the drastic decline in the number of U.S. travelers going to China a problem.

Meanwhile, a similar drop in the number of U.S. students studying there will create a significant gap in knowledge and cultural exchange, and deprive the next generation of U.S. policymakers of first-hand experience of China. And these problems are only likely to get worse, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to ramp up the trade war and hawkish rhetoric toward China when he returns to the White House next month.

Beijing is likely to take even more measures in 2025 to make traveling to and within the country easier. But those measures will do little to reverse the real challenge facing its tourism industry: the growing negative perception of China in Western countries.

China Is Struggling to Lure Tourists Back

China Is Struggling to Lure Tourists Back
Travelers wait in line at a check-in counter at Kunming Changshui International Airport, Kunming, China, March 22, 2022 (AP photo by Dake Kang).

China has announced an expansion of its visa-free travel program, which began last year and allows travelers from 54 countries, including the U.S., to enter China without prior visa approval if they are in transit to another country. The new policy raises the limit on how long those travelers can stay to 10 days, up from a maximum of six days. (New York Times)

Our Take

This change by China’s government is a modest measure, but it is reflective of Beijing’s continued efforts to reestablish China as a destination for travelers amid a post-pandemic slump in the tourism industry. Since reopening its borders in late 2022, the country has not even come close to reaching pre-pandemic tourism levels, even as other popular destinations around the world reached new peaks due to pent-up demand once travel restrictions were lifted. The lack of spending by tourists only worsens the problems facing China’s economy.

Reinvigorating China’s tourism industry will likely be an uphill battle, though. Beijing’s draconian COVID-19 lockdown measures, which lasted nearly three years, exacerbated a growing perception—tied to geopolitical tensions in Western countries—of China as uninviting. Meanwhile, crackdowns on political dissent, the further tightening of space for free speech and high-profile arrests of foreign nationals in China have only compounded that view.

Germany’s Backward-Looking Elections Could Be a Prelude to Disaster

Germany’s Backward-Looking Elections Could Be a Prelude to Disaster
CDU party leader Friedrich Merz speaks at his nomination as the party’s direct candidate for the Hochsauerland district parliamentary constituency, in Schmallenberg, Germany, Nov. 30, 2024 (DPA photo by Christoph Reichwein via AP Images).

In the hours before the parliamentary vote of no-confidence that brought down the now-minority government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday, a vicious debate over the policy failures of the past decade broke out among the leaders of Germany’s four main establishment parties.

Friedrich Merz, who leads the opposition center-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, understandably focused on the infighting that ultimately doomed the Ampelkoalition—or traffic-light coalition, after the three parties’ colors—over which Scholz presided until last month. For their part, Scholz, who leads the Social Democratic Party, or SPD, and Christian Lindner, who heads the market-friendly Free Democratic Party, or FDP, tried to avoid blame for the coalition government’s missteps. And Robert Habeck, who leads the Green Party, focused on the geopolitical blunders committed by previous CDU-dominated governments led by former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Yet while the established parties focused on the past, Germany’s—and Europe’s—future may well depend on how it responds to the challenges posed to its constitutional order by the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, and the populist far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW.

Chad’s Deby Is Taking a Big Risk in Kicking France Out

Chad’s Deby Is Taking a Big Risk in Kicking France Out
Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby arrives for a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Oct. 3, 2024 (photo by Andrea Savorani Neri for NurPhoto via AP).

On Nov. 28, Chadian Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah released a communique announcing that Chad would terminate its military cooperation agreement with France. The move reportedly came as a big surprise to French authorities; French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot had just left the country hours earlier without any indication that such a move was in the cards.

The current French military presence in Chad, numbering over 1,000 troops, dates from 1986. But apart from several short intervals, French troops have been in the country nearly continuously since their colonial-era conquest of the region around Lake Chad in 1900. Since Chad’s independence in 1960, French troops have served to protect successive governments against armed overthrow, while benefiting from a central geographical location for the projection of French power elsewhere on the continent. Many generations of French officers have served in the country, and the French military has a strong institutional attachment to its presence there.

The last time France intervened directly to protect the government was in 2019, when it launched airstrikes against rebels moving into Chad from neighboring Libya. However, French forces also played important logistical and intelligence-sharing roles in preventing rebels from overthrowing the Chadian government in April 2021, though then-President Idriss Deby was killed in combat at the time. French President Emmanuel Macron attended Deby’s funeral, where he aggressively asserted France’s commitment to the survival of Chad’s regime, now headed by Idriss Deby’s son, Mahamat Idriss Deby.