Many countries have welcomed the election of Iran’s newly inaugurated president, Hasan Rouhani, while remaining cautious about the prospects for major shifts in Iranian policy as a result of his victory. But few countries have responded as erratically as Russia. Recent weeks have seen media reports that President Vladimir Putin would visit Tehran and that Moscow would sell Iran advanced weaponry—only to be retracted days later. Russia’s interests regarding Iran are complex and often conflicting, explaining Russian policymakers’ seemingly erratic behavior.
Moscow has six core goals regarding Iran: supporting nonproliferation, preventing war or regime change, maintaining regional security, minimizing sanctions, ensuring diplomatic leverage, and advancing energy and economic cooperation. However, the relative priority of these objectives depends on the situation.
Russian officials oppose Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, but not because they fear a near-term Iranian attack. Rather, they are concerned for the health of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime at a time when many potential proliferators can be found near Russia. Additionally, NATO countries cite Iran’s nuclear and missile activities to justify their missile defense programs, which Moscow perceives as undermining its nuclear deterrent capability.