Today’s Top Story

Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, member states are meeting today in Laos for the organization’s annual summit. Today’s meetings will be followed by two days of talks with representatives from “dialogue partners,” including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. (AP)

Our Take

As far as major regional blocs go, ASEAN might be the least well-known by the general public, a low profile that belies its importance in global affairs. That is in part because, although it was created nearly 60 years ago, the bloc didn’t rise to prominence until relatively recently.

In the mid-to-late 2000s, Southeast Asia’s rapidly growing role in globalized supply chains and the attractiveness of its economic integration under ASEAN suddenly made the region a central node in the global economy. At the same time, the grouping began to institutionalize its dialogue mechanisms with outside partners, in an effort to operationalize what it called “ASEAN centrality” to regional affairs. That made ASEAN summits an important stop for Western leaders on diplomatic tours, with the U.S. in particular making relations with ASEAN a priority during the Obama administration.

ASEAN also became the central forum for addressing some of the region’s key challenges, from democratic backsliding to security crises, in particular China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea. And even as Southeast Asia became an unwilling arena for growing competition between the U.S. and China, it also became a beneficiary of that competition, with many companies moving from China to countries in the region to avoid U.S. tariffs and more recently the headwinds facing China’s economy.

All of these factors put ASEAN on an upward trajectory in terms of influence for more than a decade. But the organization has lost some of its diplomatic luster in recent years. To some extent, that shift is the result of the U.S. walking back its embrace of liberalized trade under the Trump and Biden administrations, taking any further free trade agreements of the kind the region aspires to off the table for now.

But the organization’s own shortcomings are also to blame for its relative loss of relevance. ASEAN has been ineffectual on the two major issues facing the region in recent years—China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and the civil war in Myanmar. On the former, ASEAN’s unanimity-based decision-making has prevented it from taking a decisive stand, particularly because Cambodia has effectively served as a Trojan Horse representing Beijing’s interests inside the grouping. On the latter, ASEAN’s policy of nonintervention in member states’ domestic affairs has prevented the organization from being a forceful player in resolving Myanmar’s brutal conflict.

To be sure, Southeast Asia remains an important region in the global economy, and several ASEAN members—like Vietnam and the Philippines—have become key players in regional geopolitics and security affairs. That suggests it would be a mistake to count ASEAN out, even if the organization doesn’t have the influence it once did.

On Our Radar

Cameroonian authorities dismissed speculation about the health of President Paul Biya after a monthlong public absence, saying he is simply on a visit to Europe. Biya, who is 91 and has been in power in Cameroon since 1982, is known to be sick, although no more information about his health is publicly available.

Despite his age, Biya is expected to seek reelection in next year’s presidential election, and given his total control of Cameroon’s political landscape, he is all but assured to win. Still, as Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote last month, delicate but inescapable discussions about a post-Biya succession have become more common in Cameroon and are taking on more significance, both for the country and the region, given the potential for political instability in the coming years.

The Post-Biya Era Is Already Looming Large in Cameroon

Sept. 4, 2024 | After four decades in power, Cameroonian President Paul Biya’s next term will likely be his last. The international community should be preparing for that. Read more.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her sharpest rebuke yet of Hungarian PM Viktor Orban in a speech to the European Parliament. Without naming Orban directly, von der Leyen accused him of economic mismanagement and bowing to Russia over the war in Ukraine.

The speech came just minutes after Orban delivered his own remarks on the priorities for Hungary’s six-month rotating EU presidency, which began on July 1. As John Boyce wrote in August, Orban retains considerable capacity to use that role to disrupt Brussels’ agenda in key policy areas.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Hungary’s EU Presidency Is Brussels’ Latest Orban Headache

Aug. 8, 2024 | Viktor Orban has long drawn Brussels’ ire. With Hungary now holding the EU’s rotating presidency, he could do more damage than ever before. Read more.

Burkina Faso PM Apollinaire Kyelem de Tambela met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belouso in Moscow yesterday for talks on expanding military ties. Russia’s expanding security ties in Africa—particularly with the Sahelian states of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso—have led to concerns in the West about Moscow’s influence on the continent. But as Duncan Money and Tycho van der Hoog wrote in June, Russia’s position in Africa is weaker and less profitable than reported.

New Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum laid out her administration’s plan to combat violence stemming from drug cartels yesterday, although analysts say it is largely a continuation of the militarized policies of her predecessor, former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Those policies have largely been a failure, but as James Bosworth wrote last month, AMLO seemed determined in his final weeks in office to lock them in.

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