In early June, an attack on a military base near Mansila, in eastern Burkina Faso, reportedly resulted in the death of more than 100 soldiers. As rumors of a mutiny spread, Capt. Ibrahim Traore, the leader of the country’s military junta, disappeared from public view, presumably whisked away by his security team.
Traore reappeared several days later, surrounded by loyalists, and denied the rumors. But his caution is understandable. In recent years, similar attacks have exacerbated existing divisions within the ranks, precipitating two military coups in 2022. The first, led by Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba in January 2022, ousted Burkina Faso’s democratically elected president, Roch Marc Christian Kabore. Under Kabore, the government’s inability to contain a rapidly expanding militant Islamist insurgency culminated in a series of military losses in the months preceding the coup, including one in Inata that left more than 50 soldiers dead in November 2021.
Little changed under Damiba, however, and in September 2022, an insurgent attack killed 11 Burkinabe soldiers and left 20 wounded. Four days later, Traore led his own coup, ousting Damiba and installing himself at the head of the junta. Yet under his rule, too, a lack of strategy coupled with misguided heavy-handed tactics has worsened the security situation and unleashed a humanitarian disaster in Burkina Faso.