Nearly a week after launching a surprise incursion into western Russia, Ukrainian forces now control 1,000 square kilometers, or around 386 square miles, of the Kursk region, Kyiv’s top military commander said. The region’s acting governor said yesterday that Ukraine also controls more than two dozen villages in the area and that more than 100,000 people in Kursk had been evacuated. (AP & Washington Post)
Our Take
Because there is little visibility on the ground in Kursk, it is difficult to tell exactly what the state of Ukraine’s incursion is and, more importantly, how sustainable it is. Regardless, it is a stunning development, even more so because of the speed with which Ukrainian forces have taken Russian territory. It is a critical reminder that war is inherently unpredictable, even when it seems locked in stasis.
The big question now is what strategic value this move has for Kyiv. In the short term, in seizing the initiative, Ukraine is forcing Russia to respond reactively in the war for the first time since Ukraine’s initial counteroffensive nearly two years ago. Moscow has already pulled some units out of southern Ukraine to fend off the incursion, which should lighten the burden elsewhere for Ukrainian forces that have been facing grueling conditions under relentless attack, while lacking the reinforcements that Russia has. The sudden intrusion of the fighting onto Russian territory also risks piercing the business-as-usual atmosphere that has pervaded Russian society, forcing the war and its costs back into the public’s consciousness.