The peaceful transfer of power in Washington on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House stood in stark contrast to four years ago, when former President Joe Biden took office just weeks after a violent mob had stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to keep him from power. It also stood in contrast to two other recent inaugurations: those of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to his third term, and Mozambican President Daniel Chapo, to his first. Both were sworn in against the backdrop of controversial elections and deadly protests.
Venezuela and Mozambique weren’t alone either. 2024 was dubbed the year of elections, with over 1.5 billion ballots cast in 74 national elections, and many of them proved to be catalysts of political violence. In fact, at least a third of the countries where a national election was held last year experienced at least one act of electoral violence. This violence was triggered by a range of factors, and understanding them is key to identifying the threats facing democratic elections.
Suppressing the Opposition
The first factor was government repression. Authoritarian leaders rarely accept free electoral competitions. Instead, they engage in all sorts of electoral rigging, ranging from ballot-stuffing and vote-buying to censorship and internet shutdowns. But when they feel this isn’t enough to ensure victory, they do not shy away from using coercive means during elections. Violent repression can serve to intimidate opposition forces, raising the costs of political participation and thereby depressing voter turnout. It can also be used to mobilize core supporters, for example by punishing potential defectors to maximize loyalty at the ballot box.