For months, European decision-makers have been closely observing the U.S. presidential race in an effort to anticipate the next administration’s policy approach to Europe. For those tasked with this assignment, July has been particularly unsettling.
In the event of a victory for former President Donald Trump, the situation appears clearer than ever. Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance as his running mate vindicates the faction of the Republican Party that views U.S. involvement in Europe as a distraction from addressing the perceived threat from China. This faction accuses European countries of freeriding on U.S. security guarantees instead of shouldering the responsibility for their own defense. If Trump wins a second term in November, then, Europeans know they must brace not only for a drop-off in U.S. solidarity but also for transactional and erratic decision-making that could directly affect their security interests, especially concerning the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia.
As a result, U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension as the presumptive Democratic nominee have been met with relief in Europe, with Harris viewed both as a stronger contender to beat Trump and a torchbearer for Biden’s strong commitment to the trans-Atlantic partnership.