When trying to predict what French President Emmanuel Macron might do next, a safe bet is to assume that he will opt for the most audacious course of action. So while his announcement of snap parliamentary elections after a blowout loss to the far-right National Rally in European Parliament elections on June 9 sent shockwaves across the French political landscape, it should have surprised no one.
The battle lines that Macron has already drawn against rivals on the left and right for the upcoming vote, the first round of which will take place on June 30, echo themes that were crucial to his victories in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. Yet this time, Macron faces opponents that have learned to counter the daring gambits that have characterized his political style, starting with his stunning rise in 2017.
On the left, Macron faces a coalition, the Popular Front, comprising the moderate Socialist Party, the Ecologists—France’s green party—and the more radical France Unbowed, or LFI, party, all of which have managed to set aside their deep divisions to present a unified slate for the legislative elections. Macron has contrasted his government’s economic caution with the Popular Front’s promises to massively increase state spending and roll back pension reforms, which have fueled nervousness about France’s fiscal position on financial markets. While the capacity of LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon to alienate voters through his polarizing rhetoric may still play into Macron’s hands, public frustration with a cost-of-living crisis and widespread opposition to many of Macron’s reforms could propel the left into a much stronger position after these legislative elections.