Georgia’s parliamentary elections late last month appeared to be a test of the country’s democracy and the viability of its longstanding Euro-Atlantic path. Amid credible allegations of irregularities, official results giving the incumbent Georgian Dream, or GD, party a commanding lead sparked protests at home and incredulity abroad. Whether GD can hold on, and how Washington and Brussels react, may determine the long-term direction of not only Georgia, but also the wider region.
When voting came to a close on Oct. 26, two exit polls from independent, international polling firms put the four opposition parties that cleared the 5 percent parliamentary threshold collectively ahead of GD, with one showing a margin of 52-41 percent and the other of 48-42 percent. Only hours later, however, the official results released by the Central Election Commission, or CEC, painted a very different picture, giving GD a 53-38 percent victory. That would improbably give GD—whose popularity has taken a hit over the past few years—its best showing since it came to power in 2012.
Since then, protesters have taken to the streets claiming fraud and demanding new elections at the very least. However, despite some strong international reactions, the Georgian elections and their disputed results took a clear backstage to the run-up to and aftermath of the U.S. presidential election last week. If there’s one thing that both GD and the opposition can agree on, it is that the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House will have a significant impact on their own perceived fortunes. In the meantime, the country’s future continues to be contested domestically and may remain in limbo until momentum—or inertia—accrues to one side or the other.