In politics, sometimes a long-predicted outcome can still generate a sense of shock. For months, opinion polls have indicated that the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, and the populist Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht party, or BSW, enjoy substantial support in eastern Germany. Nevertheless, the success of both parties in regional elections on Sept. 1 in Saxony and Thuringia have fueled further infighting among the parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unstable coalition government, as well as uncertainty over how Friedrich Merz’s leadership will help the conservative Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, regain power at the national level.
As a result, German politics is likely to become even more fractious and paralyzed, at the very moment when decisive action from Berlin is needed to help tackle dangerous crises facing the European Union.
The AfD’s showing—a close second in Saxony with 30.6 percent of the vote and first place in Thuringia with 32.8 percent—makes it a dominant player on the regional level in at least two German states. Yet, even as observers and policymakers expressed consternation over the results, the CDU leadership still tried to claim that holding on to first place in Saxony with 31.7 percent and second place in Thuringia with 23.6 percent has validated Merz’s political project for the party’s return from opposition.