Azerbaijani foreign policy officials and analysts see few signs that the election of Hasan Rowhani as Iran’s next president will bring about any meaningful changes in Iran’s foreign policies—whether regarding Israel, Tehran’s controversial nuclear program or Azerbaijan’s tense relationship with the Islamic Republic.
Azerbaijan’s foreign policy elites’ main concern is that the West will continue to undervalue Azerbaijan’s importance, leaving Baku in a position where it is forced to accommodate Tehran’s demands, as well as pressures from Russia, to abandon its Western-leaning foreign policy.
During four days in Baku this past week, I had the opportunity to discuss Azerbaijan’s relationship with Iran and other countries with prominent local experts as well as government officials. In Azerbaijanis view, Azerbaijan’s soft power, secular government, Western orientation and independent energy, economic and security policies have aroused enduring Iranian hostility. Azerbaijanis believe that Iran’s clerical regime will likely consider their country as a potentially existential threat as long as Baku continues to pursue secular and pro-Western policies.