IAEA Iran Report Barely Causes a Ripple

I just got a chance to go through the just-leaked IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program now, but one thing I'd already noticed is that despite the write-ups of the findings being characteristically damning, no one really paid any attention. Either everyone has been too busy to take a close look, which is possible, since I certainly was. Or else there's a "violation fatigue" that has set in, whereby the consensus understanding is shifting toward accepting that Iran simply won't stop its enrichment efforts, whether in LEU or 20 percent enriched uranium.

If that's true, it will probably take something even more arresting than the revelation in September 2009 of the previously undisclosed installation at Fordow to shock everyone into recalibrating their outrage meters. Trouble with that is that there really aren't that many arresting developments left beyond a smoking gun on weapons payload research and development, or weapons-grade enrichment capability. Even if you don't take the Israeli threats to bomb Iran seriously (and I don't), that's still a major shake-up.

There's another possibility, whereby Tehran is plowing ahead with its enrichment in order to create the most advantageous facts on the ground before striking a deal (sort of like the Israeli settlement policy on the West Bank), and Washington is maintaining a low-key response because the right backchannels signals have been sent.

Keep reading for free

Already a subscriber? Log in here .

Get instant access to the rest of this article by creating a free account below. You'll also get access to three articles of your choice each month and our free newsletter:
Subscribe for an All-Access subscription to World Politics Review
  • Immediate and instant access to the full searchable library of tens of thousands of articles.
  • Daily articles with original analysis, written by leading topic experts, delivered to you every weekday.
  • The Daily Review email, with our take on the day’s most important news, the latest WPR analysis, what’s on our radar, and more.