Iran and Pakistan have historically shared close but often tense relations. This past year has seen a high point in bilateral tensions, with the two neighbors accusing each other of harboring armed Baloch insurgent groups on either side of their border. Tehran and Islamabad now aspire to normalize their ties given the shifting geopolitical landscapes for both sides, as well as mutual economic interests. Despite their efforts, however, complete resolution of residual tensions from the border situation is unlikely, as Baloch aspirations for autonomy combined with poverty in the border region will continue to hamper implementation of effective measures.
The 560-mile border between Iran and Pakistan is porous, and the ethnic tensions in the Baloch region that spans both sides of it—approximately the size of France—has led to mutual accusations of fostering Baloch separatism. In early 2024, Iran accused Pakistan of sheltering Jaish al-Adl, a Baloch Sunni militant separatist organization that Tehran blamed for terrorist attacks on Iranian soil on Jan. 3, while Pakistan responded with claims of Iranian support for Baloch separatists within its borders.
These back-and-forth in accusations set the stage for a tit-for-tat exchange of military strikes beginning Jan. 17, when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted two locations in Pakistani territory near Iran’s border city of Saravan with missiles. The following day, Pakistan’s military responded with targeted strikes into Iran.