The rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria coupled with Israel’s weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and decimation of Hamas in Gaza have led to upbeat assessments in the West about the decline of Iran’s power and influence and the emergence of a more peaceful political order in the Middle East. However, while Iran’s regional clout has been eroded, that does not necessarily herald a more peaceful and stable regional security environment.
In fact, there is a high chance that the “new Middle East” will end up being even more volatile and unstable than the old one, in large part due to the weakening of Iran’s regional position. The near-collapse of Iran’s alliance system has left Tehran more exposed, which may drive it toward riskier and more destabilizing security strategies, while creating more room for miscalculation and reckless behavior by Iran’s regional adversaries. These two dynamics may combine to produce greater insecurity and instability in the Middle East in the coming months and years.
Syria’s future remains uncertain at this point and will depend on which of its many insurgent groups end up dominating the political scene in Damascus and whether they will collectively be able to form a stable and unified government. But for now and the foreseeable future, the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has removed a critical Iranian ally strategically located on Israel’s borders. In addition to augmenting Tehran’s military capabilities, the partnership with Syria provided a strategic land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah, the most formidable militant group within Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance network. As Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General Naeem Qassem acknowledged recently, the removal of the Assad regime has deprived the group of this critical supply route.