Amid the fighting that continues to grip much of the Middle East, Iraq—a country that for decades was at the heart of regional conflicts—has appeared relatively stable. This recent stability has been driven by a confluence of factors following the 2021 national elections. Chief among these is the relatively high price of oil, which has kept the political elites wealthy and empowered the government with the financial means to spend. Furthermore, the centralization of power by the governing Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, to the detriment of the Kurdistan Region and the temporarily united Sunni front under former Speaker of Parliament Mohammad al-Halbousi has played a significant role.
In addition to sidelining Kurdish and Sunni political forces, the SCF has ensured that Iraqi civil society can no longer destabilize it, as evidenced by the suppression of the October 2019 Tishreen uprisings and its remnants. It has also kept Iraq relatively insulated from regional conflict in the aftermath of Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
But Iraq’s stability remains precarious. With an upcoming election, the SCF’s consolidation of power will face a significant challenge, revealing whether Iraq is on the path to a more centralized and stable political system or whether it will instead revert to the cycles of fragmentation and conflict that have defined it over the past few decades since the U.S. invasion.