Why Israel’s Calculus on Regional Conflict Changed

Why Israel’s Calculus on Regional Conflict Changed
Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in the southern village of Kfar Rouman in southern Lebanon, Sept. 25, 2024 (AP photo by Hussein Malla).

Iran fired 180 missiles at Israel over the course of an hour yesterday, most of which were intercepted by Israel’s air defenses. The attack came a day after Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which Israel’s military said today will be joined by more troops, while also promising retaliation for Iran’s attack. (New York Times; Irish Times)

Our Take

Back in April, following Iran’s last major attack on Israel, we wrote that “any future standoffs between the two sides will start on a higher rung of the escalation ladder.” Indeed, that is exactly what happened yesterday: What was the conflict’s ceiling then is now the floor. That floor will also likely continue to rise, especially because Israel—having now proven the effectiveness of its defenses against Iranian attacks twice—might be less willing to show restraint.

More importantly, all of this signals that the full-blown regional conflict that observers have been so concerned about for nearly a year is now imminent, if it has not already arrived.

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