Defense & Security Archive

Israel’s attack on Hamas continued through the weekend, despite Egyptian and French efforts to broker a ceasefire. With Israeli ground forces now poised on the outskirts of Gaza City, and with an expansion of the operation into the urban battlefields that represent Hamas’ greatest tactical opportunity for exacting losses on the IDF still a possibility, it is difficult to speak decisively about the military outcome of the ongoing fighting. But according to several American experts on Arab politics, while Israel might very well succeed — at least temporarily — in depleting Hamas’ military wing, so long as Hamas is still […]

CAMBODIA MARKS ANNIVERSARY, BUT NO CLOSURE — Cambodia marked the 30th anniversary of the demise of the Khmer Rouge regime Jan. 7 with memorials for the suffering of millions. But the country remains haunted by the knowledge that perpetrators of Cambodia’s greatest crime have yet to stand trial for their crimes. Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge regime held sway over Cambodia from 1975-1979, a period in which millions of Cambodians died from torture, overwork, starvation and executions. In early 1979, a joint Vietnamese-Cambodian force toppled the regime, bringing in a new government largely beholden to its Vietnamese allies. Some Cambodians object […]

Since the moment Israel decided to launch a major military campaign against Hamas to stop rocket attacks from Gaza, the experience of the 2006 war against Hezbollah has served as a template of all that could go wrong. Like this conflict, the 2006 war came after a serious provocation by a radical Islamic group whose stated aim is the destruction of Israel. As in this war, the 2006 war presented Israel with the moral and tactical challenge of fighting a force that targets Israeli civilians, yet hides among its own population and cries foul when non-combatants are killed. The war […]

War has evolved rapidly in the last 100 years, prompting historians and strategists to come up with new terms for new ways of fighting. They call mechanized warfare, which originated in the early 20th century, the third “generation” of war, and ideological warfare waged by guerilla groups the fourth. But what about guerilla-style warfare waged by non-ideological groups against traditional states — pirates, for instance, whose attacks can destabilize trade-dependent nations, but who don’t have strategic goals beyond just getting rich? Free-for-all violence, with indirect global effects, represents a fifth generation of war, according to some experts. And when it […]

For most observers, the brief war between Russia and Georgia last August only underscored the instability of the Caucasus region and the dangerous potential energy stored in its so-called frozen conflicts. Remarkably, though, the war’s immediate impact has actually led to a relatively more stable regional status quo. Dangerous Build-up The wars of the early 1990s, in which newly independent Georgia and Azerbaijan lost control of their Soviet-era ethnic minority regions, became formative experiences for the two young nation-states. In both countries, the popular nationalist narrative continues to promote the “return” of the breakaway territories as a sine qua non […]

In her WPR column analyzing potential brokers of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Frida Ghitis did not consider a possible role for Russia — and with good reason. While Moscow has sought to position itself as a Middle East kingmaker for decades, its diplomatic initiatives have been noteworthy as much for their minimal results as for their persistence. At present, there is no reason to believe that Russia will have anything more than a negligible influence on the current Gaza crisis. In some respects, this is unfortunate, since it would be extremely helpful if Moscow were able to compel […]

TEL AVIV, Israel — In a recent post aptly entitled “Bringing the Negotiating Table to Hamas,” Judah tempered his critical view of Israeli policies with the acknowledgement that he was writing “from the comfort of a Paris apartment, beyond missile range from Gaza.” Indeed, things look quite different from where I live, which is just on the outskirts of Tel Aviv-Yaffo — and just on the edge of the area threatened by missiles from Gaza. When I look south from my balcony, I can see Ashdod, which has already been struck by missiles with deadly consequences. This goes to illustrate […]

Much of the commentary surrounding the current Israel-Hamas war has been addressed to the question of whether Israel has any hope of achieving its goals militarily, given that Hamas, like Hezbollah in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, is a non-state actor that does not fight conventionally and is therefore difficult to defeat with conventional military means. Israel’s Goals: Short-Term vs. Long-Term When addressing this question, it’s important to be clear about what Israel’s goals are in this current operation. Israel’s short-term military objectives need to be distinguished from the long-term objective of security for the state of Israel, which ultimately means […]

In the coming days or perhaps weeks, the current war between Israel and Hamas will come to an end. More precisely, this new chapter in the conflict will reach its conclusion. When that happens, a third party will have played a key mediating role and, in the process, will have raised its diplomatic profile. While the United States is the most likely candidate to broker the final ceasefire, should another country or organization become the pivotal mediator, it could walk away with a big diplomatic prize, emerging from the process with renewed prestige and international influence. But if glory awaits […]