Defense & Security Archive

As part of a “big think” forecast project commissioned by an intelligence community sponsor, I’ve begun to think about the future geography of global security. As often with this kind of project, I find myself falling into list-making mode as I contemplate slides for the brief. So here are nine big structural issues that I think any such presentation must include – Regional integration in East Asia depends on an American security presence. Virtually every country in East Asia is realistically planning for eventual absorption into a regional economic scheme structured around behemoth China, while quietly scheming to balance that […]

Amitav Acharya is one of the sharpest and best-informed analysts on Southeast and East Asia out there. We had the pleasure of including an article by him in our Regional Integration in Asia feature issue last year. He’s written a typically thoughtful op-ed on Southeast Asia’s U.S.-China dilemma that I recommend as a companion piece to Hillary Clinton’s article in Foreign Policy last week. Anyone following the region will be familiar with the broad strokes of what Acharya’s dealing with: Southeast and East Asia need to hitch their economic wagons to China’s rise, but they can’t feel comfortable doing so […]

Paraguay deployed troops into its northern provinces earlier this month in an attempt to contain an outbreak of guerrilla attacks. In an email interview, David Spencer, a professor at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at National Defense University, discussed Paraguay’s guerrillas. WPR: What is the background of the guerrilla movements in Paraguay? David Spencer: There is currently one group of guerrillas active in Paraguay, the Paraguayan Popular Army (EPP). The movement began in the historically neglected area around Concepcion in 1990, shortly after the fall of the Alfredo Stroessner government. Leftist opposition groups supporting land reform on behalf of […]

Thousands of people have rallied in several Turkish towns and cities to condemn an attack by Kurdish separatists that killed 24 soldiers and wounded dozens more.

When Israeli officials confirmed they had reached a deal with Hamas that would result in the freeing of the captured soldier Gilad Shalit, the reaction in the country was one of joy mixed with a heavy dose of apprehension. Israel had no good choices left when it agreed to make the lop-sided trade, which involved the release of more than a 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, many of them serving sentences for involvement in horrific terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians. And yet, the widely held view is that the deal, while compelling on humanitarian grounds, will not only bring […]

The return of Gilad Shalit to Israel in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners this week signaled a cooperation not seen between Israel and Hamas for nearly a decade. According to Daniel Levy, who co-directs the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force in Washington, the deal may well discredit ongoing narratives that it is simply not possible to deal with Hamas. However, says Levy, outside observers should take care not to read too deeply into the swap in the context of the wider conflict between Israel and Palestine. “I think it says almost nothing — and almost certainly […]

The South Korean military has held a live-fire exercise to showcase and promote the export of its domestic weapons. Gunfire blasted against hillsides in the South Korean countryside during the exhibition.

Some 3,000 U.S. and Filipino marines have begun two weeks of joint training drills, including a hostile beach-assault exercise near the Spratly Islands — a patchwork of islets and atolls at the center of maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. While U.S. military officials assert the drills are not aimed at China or any other country as a specific target, Marvin Ott, an Asia expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, says they represent an obvious strategic move by Washington to counter growing Chinese efforts to claim sovereignty and exert dominance over the South China Sea. […]

In Turkey, security sources say Kurdish guerrillas from the PKK separatist group have attacked military posts in the Cukurca district in the south east of the country. Latest figures indicate 26 soldiers have been killed and 22 injured.

A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has shed light on one of most important developments in the international arms trade market of the past 10 years: the decline in Russian arms sales to China. While diplomatic relations between the two powers remain relatively strong, their trade in arms has collapsed since the middle of the last decade. The cause of this collapse stems not from any substantial political conflict between the two, but rather from “ordinary” tensions that afflict great power relations. While the greatest immediate impact of this development will be felt by Russia and […]

Over the past few years, the Turkish defense industry has focused its research and development efforts on a range of new weapons systems, driven by the goal of an overall technological modernization of Turkey’s armed forces. In the process, defense exports have doubled, demonstrating that Turkish defense firms also have the potential to impose themselves on the global market. Turkish defense companies, backed by Turkish diplomats, have signed a number of high-profile export deals in 2011. Earlier this year, Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s official visit to Indonesia — which, with a majority Muslim population of 246 million, is likely to […]

The deployment of 100 U.S. troops to advise in the fight against Central Africa’s Lord’s Resistance Army has triggered speculation about the precise role such troops will play and the extent to which they may engage in combat without express congressional approval. It’s generally agreed the troops are Special Forces sent to help Ugandan and Congolese soldiers gather intelligence and coordinate logistics. But questions remain about how far they’ll go toward using more robust U.S. capabilities, like UAV drones, to potentially take down the LRA’s notoriously violent leader, Joseph Kony. “A possible scenario,” according to Geoffrey Corn, a former military […]

Last week, on a study trip to Turkey for U.S. foreign policy specialists sponsored by the Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists of Turkey (TUSKON), I traveled to Ankara, Hatay and Istanbul to meet with government officials, academic and think tank experts and business leaders. While there, we discussed many issues, including the remarkable health of the Turkish economy, the domestic political scene, the increased tolerance for expressions of Kurdish and Islamist identities, and Turkey’s relations with other countries. But perhaps the overarching theme tying all these issues together for us was the “Whither Turkey” question. For decades the Republic of […]

Earlier this month, Brazil sent 300 troops to join UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. In an email interview, Kai Michael Kenkel, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, discussed Brazil’s peacekeeping operations. WPR: What is the history of Brazil’s involvement in international peacekeeping missions? Kai Michael Kenkel: Brazil is a strong supporter of the U.N. and started participating very early in U.N. peace operations, notably the U.N. Special Committee on the Balkans in 1947 and the U.N. Emergency Force (UNEF) in 1956 following the Suez crisis, which was […]

There exists within the Pentagon an unshakeable line of reasoning that says the Chinese military threat to the United States in Asia is profound and growing, that the most likely great-power war conflict will be over Taiwan or the South China Sea, and that the primary trigger will be China’s burgeoning — and uncontrollable — nationalism. Objectively, China’s military capabilities are certainly growing dramatically, but our conventional wisdom tends to break down in the structural plausibility of the scenarios. That’s why the firm belief that rampant nationalism will trigger an eventual conflict becomes so crucial, especially when considered in combination […]

LAMU, Kenya — Supported by military planes and helicopters, Kenyan tanks, military trucks and columns of troops streamed across the Somali border Sunday in coordination with Somali government soldiers. Initially reported by locals, the operation was soon confirmed by Kenyan government spokesmen. The mobilization comes in the wake of a spate of kidnappings along Kenya’s vast, porous border with Somalia that prompted the Kenyan government Saturday to effectively declare war on al-Qaida-linked Al-Shabaab militants. Delivering a joint statement with the country’s top security chiefs, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti vowed to pursue the group in both rural and urban areas. […]

A Chinese pilot manages to eject from his spiraling FBC-1 fighter jet just seconds before it slams into the ground in this footage taken during the China International General Aviation Convention.