With fewer than 100 days left until the first round of France’s presidential election, President Nicolas Sarkozy is behind in the polls (.pdf) and facing an uphill battle for re-election. Although his principal rival, the Socialist Party’s François Hollande, has been losing ground at an alarming rate, Sarkozy’s numbers have stagnated, suggesting he will have his work cut out for him if he is to convince French voters to trust him with a second term at a time when his divisive and jarring style seems at odds with the country’s need for reassurance and unity. And in an election that […]
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The Sept. 11 attacks made a household name out of al-Qaida, an organization whose existence had earlier concerned only intelligence professionals and a handful of journalists. As 2012 begins, al-Qaida has suffered a series of harsh blows, leading some to conclude that the once-predominant purveyor of terrorism and extremist ideology in much of the world has become a spent force, one without much of a future. To be sure, 2011 was a devastating year for the organization. But al-Qaida is not about to fade quietly into the sunset. Like a virus that mutates to survive its host’s most potent defenses, […]
A Russian naval flotilla, including an aircraft carrier, left the Syrian port of Tartus Monday after a six-day call, described by the Russian government as a routine stop. In an email interview, Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University, discussed Russia-Syria relations. WPR: How committed is Russia to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and how deep are its contacts with other political actors in Syria? Mark N. Katz: Moscow had especially close relations with President Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez — who ruled from 1970 until his death in 2000 — during the […]
Last week, in the Gulf of Oman, the Arleigh Burke-class missile destroyer USS Kidd seized an Iranian fishing dhow that had been hijacked and used as a mother ship by Somali pirates. In the course of the seizure, 13 Iranian hostages were freed, and 15 Somali pirates were taken into U.S. custody. The Iranian crew has now returned home after more than a month in captivity. In and of itself, the rescue was not extraordinary. Other vessels participating in the U.S.-led multilateral naval task force fighting Somalian piracy in the region — known as CTF-151 — carry out such rescues […]
Both the Obama administration and its opponents have exaggerated the significance of the Pentagon’s new Defense Strategic Guidance (.pdf) that was issued last week. The administration wants to take pride in its new creation and demonstrate to potential congressional budget-cutters that the Defense Department has already made all the financial sacrifices that the Pentagon can prudently afford. Meanwhile, the administration’s domestic opponents attack it from both the left, which calls for more radical cuts, and the right, which accuses the administration of deliberately trying to reduce U.S. military power in order to discourage future U.S. military operations. The truth is […]
Outbreaks of violence between the Lou Nuer and Murle tribes in South Sudan, which began last month and continued into this week, have left hundreds dead and tens of thousands displaced in one of the most remote corners of the youngest nation in the world. The intertribal fighting in Jonglei state, near the South Sudanese-Ethiopian border, serves as a reminder that South Sudanese independence does not mean an end to conflicts within its own borders, said Alan Goulty, former U.K. Special Representative for Sudan and Darfur and a senior scholar in the Africa program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center […]
From the start of 2011 to the year’s end, corruption dominated India’s headlines and enflamed public opinion like no other issue. Three developments in particular brought corruption to the fore. First, in late-2010, the office of India’s comptroller and auditor general released a report stating that the Indian exchequer had lost more than $20 billion in revenue in the auction process allocating 2G telecommunications airwaves. Second, a 70-year-old Gandhi-esque figure led an anti-corruption movement that captured the nation’s attention and garnered global coverage. Third, an increasing number of India’s powerful elite began calling the country’s most famous prison, Tihar jail, […]
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s Cabinet has undergone enormous change during her first year in office, with seven ministers sacked, all but one under a cloud of corruption, and at least two more teetering under corruption allegations. Many in the commentariat have been quick to laud these firings as proof of Rousseff’s diligence in fighting sleaze, and her personal approval rating is now higher than that of her two immediate predecessors at the same stage in their first terms. A complete Cabinet overhaul is rumored for the new year, when Rousseff may reorganize the coalition she inherited from her predecessor, the […]
Although extended periods of one-party dominance may be endorsed by voters in free and fair elections, they can also prove detrimental to the health of democratic government in various ways. Corruption — in particular, the misappropriation of public resources for private gain — is a pronounced feature of dominant-party systems and one of the more obvious means by which those systems can pose a threat to clean, transparent and efficient government. As South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) celebrates its 100th anniversary and enters its 18th year in power, its experience in government is largely serving to confirm this familiar, […]
Faced with irreversible long-term fiscal pressures to reduce the U.S. defense budget, late last week the Obama administration began unveiling its supremely focused rationale behind future cuts. The result is an elegantly slim strategic statement (.pdf) that indirectly names its deepest fear in its title: “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense.” According to the document, over the past decade the U.S. military force structure has been “by necessity” dangerously skewed by “today’s wars.” Now America must start “preparing for future challenges” arising from a frightening and apparently imminent “inflection point” in East Asia’s military balance of power. […]
According to an unnamed administration official cited by the Atlantic’s Steve Clemons this week, Vice President Joe Biden has been tasked by the White House with overseeing U.S.-China relations. As such, Biden will work directly with his Chinese counterpart, Vice President Xi Jinping, who is currently responsible for the Chinese side of the strategic dialogue between Beijing and Washington, but is widely expected to succeed to the Chinese presidency later this year. As Clemons concluded, the move reflects the Obama administration’s assessment that the “management of U.S.-China policy has become so central to a vast array of other policy challenges […]
The prospect of $500 billion in cuts to the U.S. defense budget from 2013-2021 has Washington in a panic. In unveiling a barely updated military strategy yesterday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta repeated his warning that such cuts would lead to a “demoralized and hollow force.” One of his deputies has called the cuts the equivalent of “self-castration.” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina recently warned that the cuts will “destroy” the Department of Defense. We should not allow those claims to scare us into letting the Pentagon off the hook. The cuts, which come courtesy of the deficit deal […]