Amid the turmoil that has engulfed the wider Middle East over the course of the past year, Iran has been confronted with numerous challenges and some opportunities. Not surprisingly, the top priority for the Iranian regime remains its own survival. The main threats in this regard stem from external military intervention, internal unrest and increasingly, over the past year, strengthened international sanctions in response to its nuclear program. In order to counter these threats, Iran continues to invest in asymmetric, niche capabilities that play to Iran’s strengths while exploiting the vulnerabilities of its high-tech adversaries. The regime has also embarked […]
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On May 2, the United States and Afghanistan signed a new Strategic Partnership Agreement after months of negotiations. In the accord, the United States pledged to support social and economic development, provide security assistance and promote regional cooperation for 10 years beyond the planned 2014 withdrawal date for all U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will not seek permanent military bases in the country, but can receive access to Afghan facilities. In return, the Afghanistan government committed to strengthen accountability, transparency, the rule of law and human rights for all Afghans, male […]
The announcement last week that the U.S. is doubling its foreign aid to the Philippines came as the U.S. ally remains locked in a maritime standoff with China over a territorial dispute in the South China Sea. In an email interview, Richard D. Fisher, Jr., a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, discussed U.S.-Philippines military cooperation. WPR: In what concrete ways is U.S.-Philippines military cooperation being expanded in response to the Philippines’ territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea? Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: After nearly 20 years of U.S. and mainly Philippine indifference following the […]
El Salvador, only recently home to the world’s second-highest homicide rate, has watched murders plummet by 60 percent since early March. The unprecedented decline, however, is not the result of conventional policies aimed at eliminating criminal activity, but rather a very different development: a negotiated truce between the country’s two leading gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18. On March 9, some 30 gang leaders were moved to lower security prisons to engage in discussions led by the Catholic Church and a former congressman. El Salvador’s online investigative journal El Faro broke the story on March 14, and the […]
Despite parallel histories and a concerted push on both sides to forge lasting ties over the past decade, it is apparent today that Georgia and Israel face very different geopolitical concerns and increasingly conflicting national interests. Indeed, their partnership, which once seemed so natural, now looks permanently derailed. After Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution propelled a new generation of Western-educated modernizers to power in Tbilisi, the country sought to leverage its 130,000-strong diaspora in Israel for investments and partnership. Georgian officials praised Israel as a model and frequently drew comparisons between Israel’s difficult journey to statehood and Georgia’s ongoing conflicts with […]
Announcements made at 2:30 a.m. usually come as a surprise, and the one made Tuesday night by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was no exception. Israelis rubbed their eyes, trying to make sure they had heard correctly: Netanyahu upended the country’s political chessboard by making a deal with the largest opposition party. Early elections, which had been expected in September, were canceled. Suddenly, Israel no longer has a rightist government. Most importantly, the deal with Shaul Mofaz, the newly elected head of the centrist Kadima party, has pulled the rug out from under the extreme-right parties. This is one for […]
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has wrapped up her latest trip to Asia, which included stops in China, Bangladesh and India, where she met with government officials to review the strategic partnership between India and the United States. She emphasized that the countries must expand trade and investment, deepen security cooperation, promote a shared vision for the region and, she told the media in Delhi, “meet the challenges and seize the opportunities in South and Central Asia.” But Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Trend Lines there have been no major changes in the U.S.-Indian […]
Between 1948 and 1973, Egypt and Israel fought four major wars and a collection of smaller skirmishes. Some of these conflicts — the Suez Canal crisis, the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October or Yom Kippur War of 1973 — had geostrategic implications for the United States. Any of them conceivably could have escalated into a confrontation between the two Cold War-era superpowers. And throughout that period, a strong, aggressive Egypt represented the gravest threat to the security of the state of Israel, which had become a vital U.S. interest in the Middle East. For all these reasons, and […]
At the beginning of April, after a loose coalition of Tuareg rebel groups forced the Malian army to abandon Timbuktu, one of the armed factions involved in the fighting didn’t lose much time in announcing its ultimate objective: “We, the people of Azawad declare irrevocably the independence of the state of Azawad,” read the communiqué issued by the National Liberation Movement of Azawad — known by its French acronym, MNLA — five days after the ancient city fell. The bold declaration is of course mostly wishful thinking. No state or international organization has recognized the independence of Azawad, as the […]
In one of several military operations that have been launched over the past year to tackle illegal gold mining, illegal deforestation and drug smuggling in the Amazon rain forest, Brazil is sending more than 8,500 troops to patrol an area that stretches across the northern border of the country. The deployment, which underscores Brazil’s efforts to assert greater control over the more than two-thirds of the Amazon that falls within its borders, comes as international expectations over Brazil’s role as a regional power rise — and as a United Nations conference on sustainable development to be held in Rio de […]
In the aftermath of François Hollande’s election as France’s president Sunday, much of the analysis has concentrated on the implications for Europe: in particular, how Hollande’s call for an emphasis on economic growth will impact the austerity cure imposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the solution to the European Union’s sovereign debt crisis. This is understandable, as France’s — and Europe’s — economic solvency will of course condition much of its ability to act on the international stage. But a quick look at Hollande’s agenda in the coming weeks — G-8, NATO, G-20 and EU heads of state summits […]
One issue that warrants greater attention from Washington policymakers moving forward is how relations between Russia and China will affect those two countries’ policies relating to nuclear arms control. In particular, the next administration needs to consider how the U.S. government and other actors can help shape this evolving relationship so that it moves in benign directions, while hedging against possible adverse outcomes. Russia and China have the world’s two most powerful militaries after that of the United States. China is currently undertaking perhaps the most comprehensive military modernization program in the world, while Russia still has approximately as much […]