Defense & Security Archive

BAMAKO, Mali — Al-Qaida-linked Islamist groups took control of northern Mali earlier this year, prompting concerns that the vast desert expanse could become a jihadist safe haven. Since then, U.S. policymakers have openly entertained the possibility of kinetic operations, such as drone strikes in northern Mali, and pundits are asking if the landlocked West African nation now constitutes a new front in the war on terror. Largely overlooked in this discussion, however, is the fact that United States has been heavily engaged in counterterrorism activities in this part of Africa for more than a decade — an engagement that has […]

Over the weekend, photos and video surfaced of China’s newly commissioned aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, conducting carrier aircraft operations for the first time. The development marked a major milestone in the rapid modernization of China’s armed forces. Across the Taiwan Strait several weeks prior, however, another notable development occurred to less fanfare: Taiwan conducted tests of a new “carrier killer” anti-ship missile that many speculate was intended as a not so subtle signal to Beijing. The missile, according to multiple sources, was tested by the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology and is thought to be an advanced version […]

The past two weeks have brought major political and strategic changes to the Middle East, particularly in Israel, which saw a military confrontation with Hamas-ruled Gaza as well as a feverish pace of political activity in advance of upcoming parliamentary elections. Developments in Israel on both the military and political front have implications for the prospects of a much-discussed war with Iran. The question is whether the changes on the ground make a war with Iran more or less likely. The war with Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza pitted Israel against groups linked and partly armed by the […]

When the Cold War began in the late-1940s, the U.S. military entered uncharted waters. Previously, the American tradition had been to mobilize the Army and Navy when war was unavoidable, defeat the enemy, demobilize and then come home. That was clearly inadequate for a dangerous new world where the Soviet Union and its allies threatened fragile U.S. allies with direct attack, subversion or insurgency. The new circumstances called for a new strategy built on sustained global engagement and forward presence. This, in turn, required a different security architecture. In Washington, the newly created National Security Council integrated interagency efforts, and […]

Although Russia and China are the only countries that have the capability to conduct a large-scale ballistic missile attack on the U.S. homeland, neither one is the focus of U.S. ballistic missile defense efforts, due to the unlikelihood of such an attack. Nevertheless, both Moscow and Beijing have repeatedly expressed their concerns that U.S. missile defenses will negatively impact their own strategic capabilities and interests. While China shares some of Russia’s concerns and responses regarding U.S. missile defenses, Beijing’s objections also differ in certain respects. Both countries fear that U.S. BMD systems threaten to weaken their nuclear deterrents and undermine […]

In 2006, after Israeli forces performed poorly in combat against Hezbollah’s hybrid asymmetric-conventional tactics, some observers wondered whether Israel had lost its deterrent power against its enemy in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s subsequent tacit apology to the Lebanese people for the destructiveness of the month-long conflict should have offered a clue that such a conclusion was erroneous. “Had we known that the kidnapping of the soldiers would have led to this, we would definitely not have done it,” he said in a television interview following the fighting. The initial proof of Israel’s renewed deterrent came two years later, […]

A series of major political developments on the Afghan front this month all point toward new cooperative efforts by Pakistan, Afghanistan and the U.S. to bring the Taliban leadership into the negotiation process. The renewed push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict comes against the backdrop of the looming withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Though major questions remain as to whether the effort will bear fruit, it represents what many fear is the last chance to avert a bloody fight for control of Kabul once foreign troops have left the country. On Nov. 14, during the […]

After a successful appeal at a United Nations tribunal, Croatian national hero Gen. Ante Gotovina, who led a 1995 offensive to retake a region of Croatia from Serbian militant control, was acquitted of war crimes last week. The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia reversed the convictions of war crimes and crimes against humanity against Gotovina and Mladen Markac, a more junior general. Gotovina’s conviction in 2011 had dealt a blow to the image of Croatians as victims, rather than perpetrators, of the atrocities committed during the breakup of Yugoslavia. The successful appeal now provides Serbs with another example […]

At a summit meeting earlier this month, leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) extended the mandate of a small peacekeeping force in Guinea-Bissau that was put in place after a coup in the West African state in April. In an email interview, Lars Rudebeck, a professor emeritus of political science at Uppsala University in Sweden, discussed ECOWAS’ mission in Guinea-Bissau.* WPR: What is the composition of the ECOWAS force in Guinea-Bissau, and what are its goals? Lars Rudebeck: The force is made up of around 600 soldiers from Burkina Faso, Senegal and Togo, according to ECOWAS. […]

The most alarming development cited in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest quarterly report (.pdf) on Iran’s nuclear program is that Tehran is preparing to double the number of high-intensity centrifuges in operation at its Fordow fuel enrichment plant from the current 700 to 1,400. The situation at Fordow, which has been the focus of the past year’s international nuclear talks with Iran, has created a two-fold nuclear breakout problem. First, having learned how to increase the concentration of enriched uranium to 20 percent, Iran’s nuclear workers can more easily manufacture weapons-grade uranium, which involves further enriching the uranium to […]

For a man who regularly receives disturbing reports from war zones, last week was a particularly bad one for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. As fighting escalated in Gaza and rebel forces launched new offensives in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo — where U.N. peacekeepers are on the front line — Ban also had to manage the fallout from an internal report (.pdf) on the U.N.’s performance during the final phase of the Sri Lankan civil war in 2009. The report tells an appalling story. U.N. officials in Sri Lanka, the report shows, avoided confronting the government over the fierce […]

When assigning homework exercises for a survey course that I teach on American foreign policy, I tell my students that no matter how strong the arguments they use to defend their positions, if they neglect to examine how demographic trends will affect their proposals, they will get an F. What is true for my students is true for global policymakers: Demographic trends will shape our future in a much more profound sense than most of the developments we see on the front page of the New York Times. Four major demographic trends in particular will shape the global security landscape […]

In a speech at the Asia Society in New York this September, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar laid out a foreign policy agenda that she described as Pakistan’s “regional pivot” within Asia. Khar explained that Pakistan would now pay more attention to building and stabilizing relations within its immediate region. In arguing that Pakistan was on the path to normalizing relations with its neighbors, Khar pointed to Islamabad’s pursuit of policies that privileged enhanced trade relations and energy cooperation over zero-sum security competitions. For many in attendance the speech was both surprising and intriguing. The ruling Pakistan People’s Party […]

Russia dispatched a three-vessel squadron to join its anti-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia earlier this month. In an email interview, Thomas Fedyszyn, a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, discussed Russia’s anti-piracy operations. WPR: What is the current size and scope of Russia’s anti-piracy efforts in the Horn of Africa? Thomas Fedyszyn: The Russian Federation Navy (RFN) has conducted anti-piracy operations off the Horn of Africa since 2008. The minimal force is composed of one ocean-going surface combatant with helicopters, an oiler (tanker) and a seagoing tug. Each of Russia’s four fleets has […]

This week’s high-level U.S.-Australia defense and security consultations, which saw U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and their Australian counterparts, Bob Carr and Stephen Smith, meet in Perth Wednesday and Thursday, took place against the backdrop of domestic debate in Australia over defense procurement and the primacy of the Australia, New Zealand, United States (ANZUS) alliance in Australia’s strategic calculus. In a November 2011 visit to Australia, U.S. President Barack Obama announced increased military cooperation between the two nations as part of the United States’ wider repositioning in Asia. The Australian government is unwavering […]

Following days of rocket attacks into southern Israel, Israel launched a series of deadly airstrikes in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, killing Hamas military leader Ahmed Jabari amid a broader military campaign. Coming against the backdrop of warming relations between Hamas and other regional powers, the offensive is testing Israel’s relations with key U.S. allies such as Egypt, which promptly recalled its ambassador to Israel. Mouin Rabbani, an independent Middle East analyst based in Jordan, and Nathan Thrall, an analyst with the Middle East program of the International Crisis Group based in Israel, both told Trend Lines in email interviews […]

British Prime Minister David Cameron traveled to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates last week in an effort to promote sales of the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet. In an email interview, Rosemary Hollis, a professor of Middle East policy studies at City University London, discussed relations between the U.K. and the Persian Gulf states. WPR: What is the state of diplomatic and economic relations between the U.K. and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states? Rosemary Hollis: British economic and diplomatic relations with the GCC states are intertwined. Fully aware of this, British Prime Minister David Cameron recently visited the […]