Defense & Security Archive

On Monday, 100 mutinous soldiers seized Eritrea’s Ministry of Information and forced state television to broadcast their list of demands. Loyal government troops quickly put an end to what some are calling a failed coup attempt, but two Eritrea experts who spoke with Trend Lines said the challenge to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, who has made the country one of the most isolated and oppressive in the world, is far from over. “This is a reflection of the depth and breadth of dissatisfaction in the society over the continuing failure to take the country beyond the war footing it went […]

President Barack Obama begins his second term with a new national security team in the making. It now looks like most if not all his key nominees will secure Senate confirmation in coming months, with Sen. John Kerry at State, former Sen. Chuck Hagel at Defense and White House counterterrorism czar John Brennan at the CIA. Though some have described Obama’s new “team of friends” as representing an inward-looking impulse, world events may not permit that. As in his first term, Obama will probably again face a gap between his preferred goals and strategies — focusing on Asia and rebuilding […]

Last week, outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta came to Europe to say “goodbye and good luck.” The U.S. is switching its strategic focus to the Pacific; in the future, Europeans will have to do more fending for themselves. The coincidental eruption of the Mali crisis underlined Panetta’s point. The U.S. found itself legally precluded from intervening because of the overthrow of the democratic government by the Malian army in March. So in this North African crisis, the U.S. would not even “lead from behind” as it had in Libya. Any intervention in Mali was strictly up to the Europeans. […]

France has been at war in Mali for just more than a week, and though you might not know it from much of the media coverage, France is winning. This fact has been overlooked in a good deal of commentary on the fighting for three reasons. First, the Islamist rebels the French set out to fight have proved surprisingly resourceful. Second, the Malian army has turned out to be hopeless. Finally, the seizure and murder of Western oil workers in Algeria by a group associated with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has shown that the Islamists have some strategic depth. […]

Editor’s note: This report was originally published on Oct. 30, 2012, and updated with new material on Jan. 21, 2013. France’s sudden military intervention in Mali has put the country’s twin crises at the top of the international agenda. A loose coalition of Tuareg nationalists, Islamic militias and transnational criminal networks has split the country in half, with a military-led coup government in Bamako seemingly incapable of crafting a decisive response. Meanwhile, the spillover is increasingly threatening regional stability. Updated to include new developments, this WPR special report reviews the conflict in Mali and the crisis in the Sahel. Mali […]

We are rapidly approaching the 10th anniversary of the start of the Iraq War. For some politicians, their initial stance on the war is something they might prefer to overlook. It will be interesting to see, for instance, if, during their nomination hearings, either Secretary of State-designate John Kerry or Secretary of Defense-designate Chuck Hagel is asked whether they still stand by their yea vote in October 2002 to give President George W. Bush the authorization to pursue military action against Saddam Hussein. For others, the inevitable retrospectives will fall into one of several predictable categories. Some will attempt to […]

In December, Canada announced it was considering alternatives to the long-planned purchase of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet, in part because of the quickly rising expense of the American aircraft. In an email interview, Srdjan Vucetic, an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa specializing in Canadian and American foreign and defense policy, discussed the foreign policy implications for Canada of considering alternatives to the F-35. WPR: How seriously is Canada considering aircraft other than the F-35, and what are the main contenders? Srdjan Vucetic: According to the Public Works and Government Services Canada, the department that in April 2012 […]

Last week’s meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai felt like a last desperate attempt to salvage a crumbling marriage: With the relationship clearly dying, the two sides quibbled over the pace of U.S. disengagement and the extent of future American aid and assistance. But as U.S. involvement in Afghanistan winds down, Americans should already be thinking about what they can learn from their longest war. U.S. national security strategy, as I explained in my book “Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy,” is shaped by the lessons drawn, rightly or wrongly, from previous conflicts, wars […]

The Turkish government recently reported “important progress” in talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group seeking greater Kurdish autonomy from the Turkish government. In an email interview, Gulistan Gurbey of the Free University of Berlin explained the political context and prospects of the talks. WPR: What is the political context, in terms of risks and opportunities, for Turkish Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, the AKP, in pursuing a deal with the PKK now? Gulistan Gurbey: Erdogan’s readiness for a deal with the PKK results from the escalation of […]

Russia’s next-generation nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN), equipped with the new Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), officially entered service with the Russian navy’s Northern Fleet on Jan. 10. Christened the Yuri Dolgoruky, this first Borey-class sub was under construction at the Sevmash shipbuilding company from 1996 to 2008. The ship had originally been intended to carry the much larger Bark SLBM. When the Bark’s development problems led the Russian governmentto abandon it in favor of the smaller Bulava, Russian shipbuilders had to redesign the entire Borey class to accommodate the Bulava — before the missile had even moved beyond the drawing […]

Contemporary Vietnam, officially known at the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV), was formed in 1976 after a four-and-a-half decade armed struggle led by the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) against French colonialism and U.S. intervention. When the war against France came to an end in 1954, Vietnam was partitioned, and North Vietnam became Southeast Asia’s first communist state, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam. During the early years of the Democratic Republic, China was its chief provider of foreign assistance as well as its main model of development. For example, Vietnam carried out land reform in the mid-1950s and then reorganized the […]

For the first time, Colombia’s civil society has been invited to contribute to peace negotiations between the government and the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), with the discussion focused on the root cause of the country’s war: land reform. Hosted by the United Nations and the National University of Colombia, the Forum for Integral Agrarian Development was held in Bogota from Dec. 17 to 19. Not only did the forum place land reform at the center of peace negotiations, at least for the moment, it also has the potential to give the peace process legitimacy in the eyes […]

The United Nations Security Council has had a lot of rebellions to worry about since 2013 began. Islamist insurgents in Mali launched a new offensive, provoking a military response by France. Tentative negotiations in the Central African Republic have persuaded rebels to pause their advance on the capital, Bangui, at least for now. There have been more fierce battles in Syria, extinguishing hopes for U.N. mediation there. While trying to keep track of these events, diplomats at the U.N. have also found time to debate military technology, peacekeeping and another unresolved rebellion in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Last […]

Brazil recently launched a $480 million effort to develop precision missiles and rockets, part of a larger effort to revitalize its defense sector. In an email interview, Salvador Raza, a former Brazilian naval officer and current adjunct professor at National Defense University, and Peterson Silva, a doctoral student at the University of Sao Paulo, discussed the state of the Brazilian defense sector. WPR: To what degree is Brazil independent in terms of arms production, and what systems does it need to import? Salvador Raza and Peterson Silva: Brazil has developed significant know-how in the production of relatively sophisticated defense products […]

Are we seeing the opening of the third installment of President Barack Obama’s approach to national security? The first iteration, beginning in January 2009, was the attempt to deliberately channel the moderate realism of the George H.W. Bush administration. Obama reached across the aisle to invite Bob Gates to remain as secretary of defense and to recruit Gen. Jim Jones as the national security adviser. The administration backed away from the interventionist tendencies of its predecessor, downplayed the importance of democracy promotion and, borrowing a page from the playbook of former Secretary of State Jim Baker, concentrated efforts on pragmatic […]

A Pakistani soldier was killed earlier today near the Line of Control (LOC), the de facto border dividing the disputed Kashmir region between India and Pakistan. The incident follows the death of two Indian soldiers and another Pakistani soldier in the same area in the past week. Over the past five days, a series of cease-fire violations and deadly border clashes has led to rising tensions between India and Pakistan, threatening to reverse a recent trend of cooperation between these two countries, which have fought over Kashmir since their partition. “The incursion of troops across the LOC is an escalation,” […]

In mid-December, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff made her first official visit to France amid speculation that the French-made Rafale might beat out competition from the U.S. and Sweden for a Brazilian fighter jet tender. In an email interview, Antonio Ramalho, an expert on Brazil-European Union relations at Brasilia University, explained the obstacles and opportunities facing the France-Brazil bilateral relationship. WPR: With new presidents in office in both countries, what are the main opportunities and obstacles facing the bilateral relationship? Antonio Ramalho: The main opportunities relate to their common views regarding the role of government in actively promoting economic growth through […]