Defense & Security Archive

The threat from North Korea to the United States, the Asia-Pacific region, and the global economy is growing rapidly. For decades the dynasty of Kim family dictators has used military provocation to fend off external pressure. Over the past decade, this took a particularly ominous turn as Pyongyang added a nuclear capability to its massive conventional military force. Today the erratic aggression of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current dictator, is pushing the danger to ever greater heights, backed by a growing nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile capability. When North Korea first tested an atomic device in 2006, the United […]

Last week, The New York Times reported that the United States had secretly stepped up cyber attacks against North Korea’s missile program during President Barack Obama’s second term. The attacks were initially a success, according to the Times. “Soon a large number of the North’s military rockets began to explode, veer off course, disintegrate in midair and plunge into the sea.” Whether or not a series of test failures in recent years were the direct result of U.S. cyber interference, as the Times suggested, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a prominent target for U.S. cyber warfare—and President Donald Trump […]

Boko Haram, the Nigeria-based jihadi movement affiliated with the self-proclaimed Islamic State, has been in decline for more than two years, since it began to lose territory around Lake Chad under joint military pressure from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. After retreating from major towns in northeastern Nigeria such as Bama and Mubi, Boko Haram now controls only certain remote rural areas in that corner of the country. But even though its strength peaked back in 2015, Boko Haram is still a major threat to Nigeria and its neighbors, as the group’s decline has been uneven and frequently punctuated by […]

Is China going to pass up an opportunity to reshape the international order? Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. appears to be distancing itself from its established role as leader of the global system. Many excitable pundits and even sober diplomats have speculated that Beijing could fill the vacuum America is creating. I have to confess to being one of the excitable ones. I argued in December that Chinese President Xi Jinping could counter Trump “by seizing the initiative on issues including climate change and free trade.” At the time, Trump—then the president-elect—threatened to punish the United Nations for a […]

Despite years of warnings, Russia has doubled down on its previously alleged violation of a three-decade-old nuclear arms control treaty by deploying a banned intermediate-range ground-launched cruise missile. Gen. Paul Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the deployment of the missile to Congress on Wednesday, calling it a violation of “the spirit and intent” of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commonly known as the INF Treaty. “We believe that the Russians have deliberately deployed it in order to pose a threat to NATO and to facilities within the NATO area of responsibility,” he added. Western […]

Last month, Myanmar inked 16 different business deals with neighboring Thailand, ranging from cooperation in infrastructure to banking and agriculture. Myanmar’s fourth-largest foreign investor, Thailand hosts many migrant laborers from Myanmar, mainly in Bangkok and in the northwest along the border. But Thailand is not the only country Myanmar is forging investment ties with. Singapore led with $4.3 billion in investment last year, followed by China, the country’s largest trading partner, with $3.3 billion. Last fall, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged $7.7 billion in development assistance. As recently as 2011, China was Myanmar’s largest investor by a factor of […]

The arrival of interim authorities in northern Mali combined with the launch of joint security patrols involving soldiers and former rebels underline the government’s determination to make significant headway this year toward implementing a stagnating 2015 peace accord with separatist insurgents in the region. But both efforts have run into trouble, and the recently announced alliance of three jihadi groups is a reminder that the threat of disruptive extremist violence isn’t going away. Beginning in late February, interim authorities have been sent to the northern cities of Gao, Kidal and Menaka. Their arrival marks an attempt by the government, based […]

Seventy years ago, a new world order emerged from the ashes of World War II. It never worked perfectly; there were still wars between and within nations. But the system did help prevent large-scale, great-power conflict and provide a rules-based process for interaction between nations. Now it may be dying. The United States was not the sole inventor of the post-WW II order, but Washington was its primary architect. But the new order did not take the shape that U.S. leaders expected. As WW II ended, Americans thought that the victorious allied powers would manage world order in concert. When […]

It was once almost axiomatic that Africa was a continent of coups, with the military coup d’etat the principal mechanism for regime change. The figures told their own story, with over 200 coups and attempted coups between many countries’ independence in the early 1960s and 2012. The post-independence narrative became wearily familiar, with periods of civilian rule punctuated by military takeovers. There was, however, a perceptible change from the 1990s onward as a result of the democratic wave that swept Africa following the end of the Cold War. Although fragile, incomplete and imperfect, this wave produced a popular intolerance for […]

Last month, police in Brazil’s southeastern state of Espirito Santo went on strike over pay and working conditions, creating a security vacuum that allowed for widespread violence and looting. The police reported 143 killings over a 10-day period, and the government deployed federal troops to stave off further violence in advance of Carnival celebrations at the end of February. In an email interview, Dennis Pauschinger, a sociologist and expert on Brazil’s security sector based at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, discusses how the crisis speaks to larger problems plaguing Brazil’s security sector. WPR: What are some of the factors […]

Foreign policy thinkers from several Asian countries are trying to focus on the positive elements of U.S. President Donald Trump’s worldview. They see a chance to expand Asian ownership of the regional agenda, and anticipate a break from American preaching about democracy and human rights. The downsides are Trump’s views on trade and the possibility of being left alone to deal with a more assertive China. During recent travels in three Asian capitals—New Delhi, Singapore and Bangkok—the evolving views of Asian elites on the Trump administration and its implications for Asia were on display. There’s a fascination with Trump and […]

Within the span of a week, Tunisia’s government was lauded abroad for passing a comprehensive anti-corruption law and lambasted at home for its muddled response to the growing number of its nationals returning from fighting among the ranks of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. It should come as no surprise that Tunisia made headlines, on one hand, for progress on democratic reform and, on the other, for lackluster security policies. Relative to its neighbors, the country emerged relatively unscathed by the popular uprising that ousted former dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, and it has been […]

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss the implications of the Trump administration’s emphasis on hard power over soft power. For the Report, James Bargent talks with Peter Dörrie about early stumbles in the implementation of Colombia’s peace deal. If you’d like to support our free podcast through patron pledges, Patreon is an online service that will allow you to do so. To find out about the benefits you can get through pledging as little as $1 per month, click through to WPR’s Trend Lines Patreon page. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes […]

As most security experts expected, driving the self-styled Islamic State out of its “caliphate” in northern Iraq and eastern Syria has been tough, bloody work. Nevertheless, the Iraqi military and local militias, backed by U.S. airpower, special operations forces and military advisers, are making progress. Eventually the international coalition will, as Hal Brands and Peter Feaver write in Foreign Affairs, militarily defeat the Islamic State “by destroying its core in Syria.” Unfortunately, though, this will not kill the group—its ideology cannot be destroyed on the battlefield—but simply drive it to other locations. As FBI Director James Comey said, “At some […]

Ever since Donald Trump became president of the United States, the Middle East has been abuzz with speculation about what exactly he intends to do in the region. There has been much talk about his plans for attacking the self-declared Islamic State, getting tough on Iran and strengthening ties with Israel. But there is another idea that is making the rounds. According to a number of reports, Trump is aiming to forge a new security alliance, with Arab countries at the core, along with the U.S. and, in what would constitute a groundbreaking development, Israel. It is noteworthy that in […]

In his first address to Congress last night, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to deliver a budget to Congress with “one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history.” A day earlier, an administration official outlined plans to raise defense spending by $54 billion, or roughly 10 percent, in next year’s federal budget, while slashing outlays for the State Development and foreign aid. Though any final budget numbers will take months of negotiations with congressional leadership, the proposals are emblematic of Trump’s approach to foreign policy and international affairs. His is a world where the strong impose […]

Late last year, in the early morning hours of Dec. 16, 40 heavily armed fighters stormed a military post in Nassoumbou, in northern Burkina Faso, about 18 miles from the border with Mali. Many observers assumed the attack was conducted by one of the extremist groups that are active across the Sahel and that find a safe haven in parts of Mali. Burkina Faso had already suffered several attacks at the hands of foreign insurgents, most often in its remote northern provinces, but also when operatives of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb infiltrated Ouagadougou, the capital, in January 2016, killing […]