Defense & Security Archive

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, draw back the curtain on WPR’s editorial process to give an idea of how we select and develop the stories we cover. For the Report, Judah talks with WPR’s publisher, Hampton Stephens, about WPR’s evolution and how our business model is driven by our values and mission. If you like what you hear on Trend Lines, as well as what you’ve seen on WPR, please think about supporting our work by subscribing. We’re currently offering a 25 percent discount on the first year of an […]

It is always better to deter an adversary than to fight, but doing so can be a tricky thing. For deterrence to work, adversaries must believe that if they cross some line, they will fail or be punished. In the broad sense, deterrence demands the tangible capability to punish a transgression, along with credibility and clear communication that some specified action will be punished. That may seem simple, but it is not, at least for the United States. The American political system can make it hard to communicate resolve to an adversary. A president may say one thing while other […]

For years, Ethiopia has been actively engaged in the civil war in neighboring South Sudan, providing troops and diplomatic support to help stabilize the ravaged country. But Ethiopia’s relations with Sudan, which South Sudan broke away from in 2011, go far deeper and have not always been amicable. In an email interview, Terrence Lyons, associate professor of international relations at George Mason University and research associate at the Brookings Institution, discusses the roots of the relationship, how South Sudan’s independence and subsequent civil war have complicated Ethiopia’s foreign policy, and what other regional issues Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan must […]

Serbia’s short-lived withdrawal of all of its diplomats from neighboring Macedonia in late August, following a narrowly avoided regional trade war, brought the timeworn phrase “Balkan tensions” back into the news yet again. Both events are a sign of how strained international relations in the Balkans can still be, and of the difficulties that lie ahead as the region’s countries look to integrate into the European Union—and with one another. However dramatic, the spat between Serbia and Macedonia was quickly smoothed over, at least on the surface. Serbian diplomatic staff returned to their embassy in Skopje four days after they […]

After years of “frozen conflict” over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted into brief, full-scale fighting in April 2016. Since then, the two sides have steadily been engaged in isolated attacks with increasingly advanced weaponry. While avoiding open conflict, they remain poised for another bout of combat and appear incapable of resolving their longstanding dispute over the territory, which is controlled by Armenian-backed separatists but still internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. In an email interview, Audrey Altstadt, professor of history at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and the author of “Frustrated Democracy in Post-Soviet […]

Niger’s president, Mahamadou Issoufou, is a central figure in two distinct but overlapping crises: the elevated flow of migrants from Africa to Europe and the insecurity in Africa’s Sahel region. In both crises, European leaders are increasingly looking to Issoufou to implement solutions. Issoufou has used his international prominence to play up his leadership at home, which may not be as secure as it seems. Within the migrant crisis, Niger is a key partner for European leaders who hope to both block migration and prevent it through economic development. The northern Nigerien city of Agadez is a hub for migrants […]

Russia is flexing its diplomatic muscles at the United Nations again. Moscow appears intent on using the U.N. to complicate American efforts to put pressure on North Korea and sow confusion over its own intentions toward Ukraine. Western diplomats should be alert, because Russia is a fine player of the U.N. game. World leaders gather in New York next week for the new U.N. General Assembly session. All eyes will be on U.S. President Donald Trump. His Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will be absent. But Moscow knows how to make its presence felt in New York. Just days after Putin […]

Frustration with the stalemate in Afghanistan has broadened the domestic debate over U.S. strategy there. For the time being, President Donald Trump remains committed to the general approach taken by the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. But options that seemed unthinkable a few years ago, like outright disengagement, are now on the table. As this unfolds, one out-of-the-box proposal in particular has sparked intense discussion among security experts: a plan to replace American troops with contractors. The most prominent proponent of this idea, Erik Prince, is a former U.S. Navy SEAL with connections in the Trump administration. Prince is […]

From the start of his presidential campaign, Donald Trump had a clear and consistent culprit for many of America’s problems: China. As he pronounced from the lobby of Trump Tower when declaring his candidacy in 2015, the American dream was dead and China, a currency manipulator and intellectual property poacher, had killed it. It was a strange location for that statement, perhaps, since Trump Tower’s biggest office tenant is a major state-controlled Chinese bank. But then again, perhaps the irony suits. Despite overtures of collaboration with Beijing to counter North Korea, Trump has reinvigorated his China critique as president. Announcing […]

North Korea’s successful nuclear test this weekend caps off a startling progression over the past 11 years from buffoonish nuclear aspirant to serious nuclear threat. Combined with successful intercontinental ballistic missile launches over the past year, the latest test effectively pushed Pyongyang over the threshold of being able to credibly target the continental U.S. with a nuclear attack. For North Korea watchers and nonproliferation experts, the development was neither shocking nor surprising. It is Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test, each building steadily toward the stated goal of a thermonuclear device. It follows a series of successful long-range missile tests that demonstrated […]

Vietnamese Defense Minister Ngo Xuan Lich’s visit to Washington in early August was just the latest sign of the remarkable progress made in security ties between the United States and Vietnam over the past decade. But it also underscored the limits of how much Hanoi is willing to cozy up to Washington today, and how unconvinced it remains of the Trump administration’s commitment to Asia. The trip exemplified Hanoi’s multidirectional foreign policy, which rests on maintaining strong relations with many outside partners to avoid dominance by any one, and of how that strategy is evolving to face the growing threat […]

Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s devastating military defeats in 1991 and 2003 demonstrated that taking on the U.S. military in conventional battles is a very bad idea. Knowing that, some of America’s adversaries, like Russia and Iran, turned to what security experts call the “gray zone”—methods that relied on proxy forces, psychological warfare and other provocations at a level that would not compel U.S. intervention. Extremist groups like al-Qaida, the Taliban and the self-styled Islamic State cannot muster the resources for full-on gray zone aggression even if they wanted to. This has forced them to rely on insurgency instead. Luckily […]

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, and associate editors, Robbie Corey-Boulet and Omar Rahman, discuss the recent cut in U.S. aid to Egypt and what’s behind French President Emmanuel Macron’s outreach to Africa. For the Report, Shreen Saroor and Mytili Bala talk with Peter Dörrie about stalled transitional justice in Sri Lanka and the fate of thousands of people who were abducted or disappeared before, during and after the country’s long civil war. If you like what you hear on Trend Lines, as well as what you’ve seen on WPR, please think about supporting our […]

Lately, it seems that every week Germany’s ties with Turkey hit another low point, and there are few signs of this trend reversing any time soon. The latest escalation came with the arrest last week of Dogan Akhanli, a Turkish-born German writer on vacation in Spain, following a warrant issued by Turkey. German officials decried the move as politically motivated and warned that the Turkish government may be using the multinational police organization Interpol to pursue political opponents abroad. Akhanli’s detention is the most recent in a string of arrests of German citizens both in Turkey and abroad. Since the […]