Historical comparisons with contemporary events are always risky, particularly with regard to warfare. But two historical patterns in the use of mercenaries in Europe can provide insights into the role that private military contractors like the Wagner Group play within the Russian political system, and how that might evolve over time.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has maintained a bipartisan consensus on New Zealand’s relationship with China, which was nurtured over decades by successive governments. In return for a lucrative trading relationship, criticism of China has remained muted. Yet Ardern has likely sensed that the public mood on China is hardening.
The coronavirus pandemic has upended life as we know it with its devastating effects on health and domestic economies, but also multilateral trade, cooperation and aid. Among the victims of COVID-19 might be the multilateral system that has helped to ensure peace and coordinate global responses to challenges that cut across borders.
A suspected Russian intelligence operation on the soil of NATO ally Albania may have been the first direct confrontation between NATO and Russia since Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine six months ago. If so, it could force the United States to act in some manner, given its past promises to respond to a threat on NATO soil.
Canadians have worked hard to develop distinct institutional traditions and international ties, but have undoubtedly benefited from the trade and security guarantees offered by the U.S. If Washington retreats from its role as global guarantor, Canadians will struggle to cope with the ensuing disruptions.
The ongoing talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal seem to have entered a critical stage in the past several days, with no small amount of optimism that a breakthrough is near. The problem both sides now face is that the deals underlying logic no longer holds, whether as an arms control agreement or as a confidence-building measure.
Critics call the Afghanistan withdrawal one of the biggest failures of President Joe Biden’s administration. Afghanistan was indeed a failure of U.S. foreign policy. But the failure was not in how the U.S. left Afghanistan in August 2021. Rather it was in the fact that U.S. forces were still in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Papua New Guinea’s national elections were marred by violence and disenfranchisement, raising concerns about the state of the country’s democracy. Nevertheless, Prime Minister James Marape’s reelection is a sign of hope for the political system’s continuity. Now Marape’s task will be to meet the public’s high expectations.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who came into office seeking to do “less not more” in the Middle East, is increasingly using the focus on China as an excuse to again do more in the region. But using the “great power competition” frame to justify and shape U.S. engagement in the Middle East is unrealistic and likely counterproductive.
The latest conflict in the Gaza Strip has put the international spotlight on the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, the second-largest militant group in Gaza after Hamas. Despite the group’s losses in the fighting, the PIJ may have emerged politically strengthened and with its credibility as a resistance movement enhanced.
Because the Wagner Group has such an established reputation, many took claims made earlier this year that the group would deploy to Burkina Faso at face value. However, rumors about Wagner rarely square with reality. The actual evidence that the group will imminently deploy to Burkina Faso is far from conclusive.
In the aftermath of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China engaged in a military show of force that raised fears Beijing could be preparing to take control of Taiwan by force, if not immediately, then in the near future. Such concerns are not off base, but fears of an imminent invasion of Taiwan are likely overblown.
In contrast to the reactions of some Western observers, Taiwan has remained remarkably unruffled by China’s reaction to Nancy Pelosi’s visit. From Taiwan’s point of view, China’s military display certainly represents a high-water mark in its pressure campaign, but part of a long pattern of behavior by Beijing.
A debate is raging across Europe over whether all Russians should be banned from entering the EU. Politicians are debating whether that would unfairly hold the Russian people collectively responsible for the war in Ukraine, and conversely whether it is fair to let them in while Europeans cannot safely travel to Russia.
The international community may be experiencing a case of compassion fatigue when it comes to the violence currently gripping Haiti. But it is hardly an excuse. While much of Haiti’s misery is homegrown, the roots of its troubles extend beyond the island, and the reverberations from its crises always breach its borders.
In the aftermath of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last week, much of the commentary in the U.S. has been on the visit’s impact on U.S.-China relations. Unfortunately, the reactions within Taiwan and China have attracted less attention, as they are revealing of domestic factors driving decision-making on both sides of the strait.
Peace in Bosnia has been bought at a high price for the EU and the local population. In ignoring growing signs of corruption, the EU allowed structural dysfunction to fester. The system put in place by the Dayton Agreement may have been necessary to end war in the 1990s. But 30 years later, Bosnia is a different place.