A controversial referendum in Central African Republic could allow President Faustin-Archange Touadera to run for a third term. International media has focused on the role Russia, Rwanda and CAR’s other international partners play in the political standoff. But ultimately local actors will determine if Touadera succeeds or fails.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, some analysts have warned that supporting Kyiv militarily would undermine Washington’s ability to counter China. In fact, the reverse is true. The increasingly hawkish U.S. posture toward China is more likely to undermine assistance to Ukraine as well as U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia.
Japan recently announced a series of changes to its defense policy, drawing criticism from rivals and praise from partners. A clearer understanding of the situation requires more balance and less hyperbole. As important as what changed in Tokyo’s defense posture is what did not change—namely, the pacifist stance at the heart of it.
After weeks of mounting pressure for the West to deliver heavy tanks to support Kyiv’s war effort, German Leopards, U.S. Abrams, British Challengers and more are now heading to Ukraine. While all of them will be helpful to a degree, the Leopards will be particularly vital and should be the focus of Western efforts.
A diplomatic row between Sweden and Turkey escalated this week. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sweden that it should not expect Ankara’s backing to join NATO, after protesters burned the Quran outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm last week. Now, NATO officials are scrambling to defuse the tensions.
Over the past decade, the use of smartphones to check the latest news updates has become the first reaction of many people to crisis. But as debates over the lessons that militaries can learn from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shown, the fragmented nature of digital information flows can distort perceptions of events.
Last year was a strange mix of chaos and continuity for the United Nations. Yet, despite the general rancor between the West and Russia, a lot of U.N. business ground on much as before. Now, U.N. officials and diplomats remain uncertain if the months ahead will involve more chaos or more business-as-usual. Three questions stand out.
Instead of repairing cross-strait relations, Beijing seems content to maintain its uncompromising approach toward the government of President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan. Beijing is hoping that a more amenable government will be elected in 2024, when Taiwan holds its next presidential election. But that might be a losing bet.
The ADF, regarded as an Islamic State affiliate, claimed responsibility for a bomb attack at a church in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Jan. 15 that killed at least 17 people and wounded 39 more. It’s the latest high-profile incident in Congo’s eastern region, where a complex security challenge threatens regional stability.
The Russia-Ukraine war will drag on for some time more, but it will end someday. So, what will that ending look like? It’s appalling to think that Ukraine should ever grant anything to Russia in order to end the war. But in all likelihood a deal ending the war will be brokered, with both sides making concessions.
Vladimir Putin has worked diligently to thwart any threat to his rule from liberal critics, using intimidation and exile to clear his left flank. The real threat to his hold on power, and to the cohesion of the Russian state, now comes from active and outspoken players on the far right with their own battle-hardened militias.
Throughout the EU’s history, the “Franco-German engine” has been viewed as central to European integration. But Germany’s weakness on defense means that European strategic autonomy hinges on France’s ability to develop close partnerships with other member states, similar to the Franco-German engine, but in the realm of security.
New Delhi’s latest effort to establish “peace and normalcy” in the Jammu and Kashmir region has muzzled even the most vocal of Kashmiris. So if silence is the goal of the campaign, it has worked. Yet the false sense of peace created by improvements in the economy and security landscape belies the stark reality on the ground.
Libya remains stuck in an intractable crisis, as efforts by the United Nations Support Mission there have so far failed to bridge the divide between the internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, or GNU, and its rival, the Sirte-based Government of National Stability, or GNS.
In early January, the United Arab Emirates’ foreign minister met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. And a once unthinkable meeting between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Assad is now also in the works. Clearly, 2023 has begun with the momentum for normalizing ties with the Assad regime growing.
What drives the disproportionate amount of aid going to Ukraine compared to crises outside Europe? One answer often given is racial bias, because many Ukrainians are white Europeans. But geographical proximity and Western publics’ perception of the nature of this particular crisis could also be playing a role.
Forty-six Ivorian soldiers who were detained in Mali since July 2022 returned to Cote d’Ivoire last week after they were pardoned by Mali’s interim military ruler, Col. Assimi Goita. But although resolution of the dispute could present both sides with the opportunity to reset relations, that will likely prove a tall order.