Diplomacy & Politics Archive

SOFIA, Bulgaria — The gas is back on in Sofia, but Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev is still feeling the political chill. Increasingly out of favour in Brussels and frozen out by fair weather friends in Moscow, Stanishev’s government also faced the wrath — and hurled bricks — of street protestors in recent weeks. It was an inauspicious start to a year featuring elections that could be crucial in reinvigorating the country’s reform process and restoring relations with its European partners. Bulgaria’s big freeze came to an end on Jan. 20, when gas flows from Russia via Ukraine — cut […]

The idea of a single, united “Arab World” has never moved very far beyond the realm of wishful thinking. The history of the Middle East comes filled with countless chapters on intra-Arab warfare and numerous tomes on political enmity and intrigue pitting Arab states against each other. From the earliest days of Islam, when the Sunni-Shiite divide tore the believers apart, to the late 20th century, when conflicts such as the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and subsequent U.S.-led counterattack divided Arab loyalties, unity has proven elusive. At times, it was possible to downplay the split. Now, however, all pretenses have […]

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Colombia’s see-saw struggle over whether to allow a third, four-year term for President Álvaro Uribe shows little sign of being settled soon. Uribe was initially elected in 2002 and reelected in 2006 after a constitutional one-term limit was overturned. In 2008, four million Colombians signed a petition in favor of a second constitutional reform that would allow Uribe to stand once again in the 2010 polls. Now, despite a farcical error in the petition’s wording, it may well receive congressional support. The Colombian president has avoided stating his own position on the matter clearly. Yet he is […]

America may not be losing the war in Afghanistan, but it is also not winning. Neither is the U.S. approach in neighboring Pakistan making friends or preventing new recruits from crossing the border to kill U.S. and other NATO troops. What then is the best way to promote peace and security in the greater South Asia region, home to nearly half the world’s population and several nuclear-armed states? The challenges involved in confronting these threats — which means fighting extremism in both countries, rebuilding governance in Afghanistan, and supporting a weak democratic government in Pakistan — dwarf the past two […]

Since 1944, America’s position within the International Monetary Fund has given it tremendous influence over national and international financial markets. Increasingly, however, this influence has been met with resistance in some parts of the world, with America’s relative economic decline causing some to question its dominant role within the Fund. But the U.S. has been largely unwilling to relinquish its privileged position, or to dramatically change its stance on the benefits of unfettered markets. As a result, despite a recent resurgence in the face of the global financial crisis, the IMF is today facing a serious challenge to its status […]

Iraq’s provincial elections took place without major incident, leading observers to let out a sigh of relief. Some hailed the elections for what they were — in Larry Kaplow’s words, “orderly, safe, and enthusiastic” — others for what they weren’t — a vindication of the Iraq war and the subsequent surge. Most assessments thus far have been premature. After all, it is one thing to vote, it is quite another to accept the results. The real test for Iraq’s fledgling democracy will be not Saturday’s voting, but rather how the competing parties come to interpret Saturday’s meaning. While these were […]

It has been a whirlwind two weeks for one of the world’s most chaotic countries. Since the last week of January, Somalia has seen the collapse of the U.S.- and U.N.-backed Transitional Federal Government and major advances by Islamic insurgents. But the TFG’s rout morphed into a modest triumph when the body elected a new, moderate president-in-exile, amid the promise of peace mediation by Islamic clerics. The catalyst for all of these moves was the seeming final withdrawal of Ethiopian troops following two years of bloody occupation. In recent months the Ethiopians had consolidated their positions in Mogadishu and the […]

The Obama administration is up and running at a brisk speed, from confronting the challenges of the financial crisis to closing the Guantanamo prison camp within a year. With the confirmation of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the naming of special envoys to the Middle East and to Afghanistan and Pakistan, President Obama has indicated not only his foreign policy priorities but also the style of diplomacy he’ll use to tackle the world’s toughest problems. While Obama’s China policy has yet to be articulated, some of its priorities were indicated during the presidential campaigns by both him and his […]

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — The release of four hostages held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) over the weekend has raised much speculation about the motives behind the group’s move. The freeing of three low-ranking policemen and a soldier held captive since 2007 is the first unilateral handover in almost a year. For the government, the latest hostage release is a clear sign that the guerrillas are sinking under the pressure of daily military offensives carried out by its armed forces, which have prompted increasing numbers of fighters to desert FARC ranks. Growing public pressure and a string of […]

Nepal’s peace process, initiated with the People’s Movement of April 2006, led to a historic process of political reconciliation. After a Comprehensive Peace Agreement with the Seven Party Alliance that spearheaded the movement, the forces of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) pledged to place their arms under U.N. supervision and explore political avenues for voicing their demands. In April 2008, voters went to the polls to elect members of the Constituent Assembly (CA), the Nepalese parliament. Both the process and results of the election impressed and surprised observers across the globe. The CPN-M emerged as the single largest party […]

“There is a thin line between the right and duty to formulate a policy based on subjective political values, and the conscious or unconscious temptation to abuse or ignore the intelligence process. It is one thing for a statesman to listen carefully to his intelligence advisers, then make a decision counter to their best judgment; and another for him to wield his political strength and authority in the interest of receiving only that information which conforms to his preconceived ideas and political biases. . . . It has been suggested that the unresolvable tension between policymaking and intelligence rests in […]

Collection is one of the essential activities in intelligence. Not only does it involve some of the most daring and technically adept aspects of intelligence, it is also a major part of the United States intelligence budget. It even forms the basis for the security classification system, with classification of intelligence stemming from the harm that would be done to U.S. national security if the means by which intelligence is obtained were revealed. Much of the intelligence collection system that the United States developed over many decades was dictated by two factors: the nature of the Soviet state and the […]

The changes to the U.S. intelligence community after the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States were perhaps the most comprehensive in five decades. Intelligence reformers have sought to improve integration within the community as well as strengthen the intelligence tools at its disposal. Although the reforms achieved important progress in some areas, certain pre-9/11 difficulties have persisted while new ones have arisen. Restructuring The Executive Branch: The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act The greatest influence in shaping the contours of recent intelligence reform in the United States was the 9/11 Commission (officially the National Commission on Terrorist […]

Russia has experienced a remarkable resurgence in recent years. Despite its strategic resurgence, however, the country’s new status rests on shaky foundations that will limit Moscow’s capacity, and perhaps ambitions, to become a peer competitor of the United States. Richard Weitz examines the country’s recent history, foreign and military policy, and national strategy in the first WPR Strategic Posture Review. The Russian Federation has experienced a remarkable resurgence in recent years. Following a decade spent managing the collapse of the Soviet Union while watching its global influence decline, Russia has once again become a world power. With the use of […]