Diplomacy & Politics Archive

The latest IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program is a particularly bad piece of news for an Obama administration that is already coping with other brushfires in the Middle East. If President Barack Obama is re-elected next year, then Iran will very likely cross the nuclear finish line on his watch. Given the “musical chairs” nature of U.S. politics, where the person left standing when the music stops loses, the blame for Tehran getting the bomb will fall squarely on Obama’s shoulders, even though one could quite fairly apportion a fair share to the Clinton and Bush administrations. Since 2009, […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the unlikelihood of a Chinese contribution to a financial bailout of Europe. Part I examined the domestic obstacles to a Chinese contribution. Part II examines the European obstacles to a Chinese contribution. SHANGHAI — Due to multiple ideological and practical obstacles, major Chinese participation in any European rescue plan would require significant material concessions from European leaders to gain any traction among Chinese policymakers and citizens. So far, proposed concessions have been largely symbolic, such as promises to recognize China’s market economy status. Moreover, China prefers to deal either […]

Philippine President Benigno Aquino and Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang signed an agreement last month to allow the two countries’ navies and coast guards to better monitor foreign incursions in the waters around the disputed Spratly Islands. In an email interview, Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defense Force Academy, discussed Vietnam-Philippines relations. WPR: What is the recent trajectory of Vietnam-Philippines diplomatic and trade relations? Carlyle A. Thayer: Vietnam and the Philippines were on opposing sides during the Vietnam War. They exchanged diplomatic relations in July 1976, but political and […]

For many, Veterans Day will bring parades honoring those who have served as well as a chance to pause and reflect upon those who are willing to pay, and have paid, the ultimate cost of service to the nation. This year, however, a disturbing trend should also be noted: For the second year in a row, however, more U.S. troops were lost to suicide throughout the force than to combat in Afghanistan or Iraq. A new report (.pdf) by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) highlights the severity of this troubling problem: – An active service member takes […]

The military crackdown on protesters has continued this week in Syria, where activists claim 25 people were killed on Thursday. There are claims that three of those killed were defectors from the Syrian Army who refused to fire live ammunition at crowds of demonstrators.

During a time of turmoil in many of the world’s regions, one corner of the globe is receiving little attention — a sign that things are going rather well there despite the audible commotion elsewhere. South America, a continent that for decades made unwelcome news, has settled into a steady, if not exactly sedate pace of progress. To be sure, the Southern Cone is not free of problems — far from it. But compared to the atmosphere of crisis stalking the developed West, or the political upheaval battering the Middle East, it looks downright placid and, dare we say, promisingly […]

The need to bring order to America’s finances has made defense budget cuts unavoidable, with the question now turning to where and how much to cut. A recent CNAS report offered some granular — and alarming at the high end — details in terms of how various levels of cuts would impact U.S. military capabilities. Now two articles in Foreign Affairs bring into focus a more reassuring view of both defense austerity, which Benjamin J. Friedman likens to “the best possible auditor,” and retrenchment, which Joseph Parent and Paul MacDonald deem to be the most promising way for an overextended […]

The recent revelation that the Drug Enforcement Administration is operating several militarized commando squads in Latin America signals an apparent U.S. eagerness to begin using covert counternarcotics strategies honed in Afghanistan over the past decade in the Western Hemisphere. The DEA’s so-called FAST team program — Foreign-deployed Advisory Support Teams — was reportedly created during the Bush administration to investigate Taliban-linked drug traffickers in Afghanistan. While their deployment now to Honduras, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Belize signals a new development, in some ways it actually represents a return to the program’s historical roots, which can be traced back to […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on the unlikelihood of a Chinese contribution to a financial bailout of Europe. Part I examines the domestic obstacles to a Chinese contribution. Part II will examine the European obstacles to a Chinese contribution. SHANGHAI — Recent optimism regarding possible Chinese involvement in addressing the European debt crisis is misplaced given China’s domestic political and economic conditions, resistance within the European Union itself and the growing international perception that Europe’s leaders simply do not have the capacity to design a sustainable solution for the continent’s economic woes. The disappointing outcome […]

A hostage situation at Venezuela’s Tocuyito prison ended last month when authorities agreed to transfer hundreds of prisoners to another facility. In an email interview, Chris Birkbeck, a specialist in criminal justice in Latin America at the University of Salford, discussed South America’s prison systems. WPR: Broadly speaking, what are the major problems facing the prison systems in South America? Chris Birkbeck: The biggest problem is the lack of control over inmates inside each establishment. Internal, often coercive, control is in the hands of prisoners, in some cases with the tacit recognition of the administration, but it is often contested […]

Under what circumstances could the United States and China go to war? A recently released RAND report (.pdf) examined this question and unsurprisingly concluded that war between the two countries was improbable, even while identifying North Korea and Taiwan as the two most likely flashpoints. The report found that a war with China was improbable because the costs in any scenario would be virtually incalculable, in large part because it might induce a global financial collapse. Nevertheless, U.S. and Chinese military strategists will continue long-term planning for war scenarios against one another, with a time horizon of up to 50 […]

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak arrived for a state visit to Washington in October in time to celebrate the passage by the U.S. Congress of the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement with U.S. President Barack Obama. But back home in South Korea, the bill continues to face spirited opposition, with the current debate revealing potential cracks lurking beneath apparently healthy U.S.-South Korea relations. In fact, due to political changes in South Korea, the friction over the FTA could be just the first sign of deteriorating relations between the two countries. South Korean opposition parties have come together to vigorously oppose […]

Wood from high-conservation forests in Tasmania has been found at a London Olympic building site despite being protected under the state’s forestry peace deal.

In the wake of last week’s G-20 Summit in Cannes, France, a number of commentators have weighed in on the U.S. response — or lack thereof — to Europe’s ongoing financial crisis. Most notably, articles in the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times suggested that the lack of a U.S. contribution to Europe’s bailout fund is a clear sign of American decline. As further support for the “decline narrative,” both trot out examples from the 1990s, when the U.S. led the way in bailing out Mexico and East Asian countries as financial crises gripped their economies. Yet, on […]

According to media reports, the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assessment of Iran’s nuclear program due out this week will find that Iran has made considerable progress in developing a nuclear weapons capacity despite international sanctions, cyber attacks and other impediments. As a result, Iran will soon be in the position to develop nuclear weapons should its leaders decide to pursue them. The IAEA assessment will reportedly provide three new revelations about Iran’s program. First, it will confirm that Iran has resumed its research and development of a nuclear warhead. That contrasts with the 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, […]

As Greece teeters on the edge of bankruptcy without a state leader, citizens are living in a vacuum of political posturing. The European Union is turning the screw and from the White House a veiled warning for the country to, “move as quickly as possible to fulfil its commitments.”

For the past eight months, Western nations at the United Nations Security Council have unsuccessfully sought to impose sanctions on the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for its violent repression of a pro-reform revolt across the country. The effort follows their success last February in getting the council to impose muscular penalties on the now-defunct government of former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Meanwhile, U.N. sanctions are currently in place against North Korea and Iran as a response to these countries’ violations of international nonproliferation obligations. Despite the diverging motivations behind each of these efforts to penalize the targeted countries, […]