Germany’s handling of the sovereign debt crisis gripping the eurozone has led some to wonder whether Germany has lost interest in Europe, or in the role it has historically played in the European Union. But does Germany really believe it has other, global options for a more unilateral foreign policy? Is Berlin falling prey to an Eastern temptation, whether from Moscow or Beijing? The answer is clearly “no,” but it is a no that has shades of gray. And those shades of gray are now combining to cast a shadow over the skies of Berlin; German foreign policy is no […]
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Arguably the greatest strategic gift offered by America to the world over the past several decades has been our consistent willingness to maintain a high and hugely expensive entry barrier to the “market” that is great-power war: first by deterring outright war with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and then by maintaining a lopsided and unipolar military superiority in the post-Cold War period. However, a case can be made that in recent years, the greatest threat to this enduring component of global stability arises from within the United States itself — namely, a national security establishment intent on […]
Recent Iranian saber rattling about closing the Strait of Hormuz is yet another reason for the U.S. to look north to Canada for oil imports. Military confrontation or a perceived threat of it in the strait — the route for almost 17 million barrels of oil daily — would wreak havoc on global oil supplies. The effects for the United States would be particularly severe: 75 percent of oil from Saudi Arabia, which at 12 percent of net U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum products is our second-largest supplier, passes through this strategic waterway. Occasional threats to global oil […]
India commissioned its first nuclear-powered submarine, the Russian Akula-II class INS Chakra, last week. In an email interview, James R. Holmes, a specialist in Asian sea power at the U.S. Naval War College, discussed the Indian navy. WPR: What is the current force structure, capability and focus of India’s navy? James R. Holmes: Taking these elements in reverse order, India sees itself as a natural, benign, nonaligned hegemon in the Indian Ocean region, much as the United States saw itself a century ago during the age of the Monroe Doctrine. Accordingly, India’s 2007 Maritime Military Strategy (.pdf) defines the navy’s […]
Now that the United States, France and other Western powers have endorsed the Arab League’s call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down — even if that formulation is ultimately edited out of the final draft of the resolution pending before the U.N. Security Council — it is time to start making plans for the various contingencies that may erupt on “the day after.” Most Western policymakers, at least in their public rhetoric, continue to cling to an optimistic scenario in which a broad-based, inclusive opposition takes power in Damascus after an initial transition from Assad’s rule. Reassured of […]
Political conflict is escalating in the normally peaceful West African nation of Senegal, with protests turning deadly earlier this week as paramilitary police opened fire on demonstrators, leaving two dead. The protests came in response to the constitutional council’s ruling that 85-year-old President Abdoulaye Wade could seek a third term in elections scheduled for Feb. 26. Wade had argued that the two-term limit imposed in 2001 does not apply to his first term in office, which began a year earlier, and the council, whose five members were picked by Wade himself, agreed. From Dakar, the capital, the ensuing protests quickly […]
In December, with a dispute over oil-transit fees between Sudan and South Sudan exacerbating already tense post-independence relations, the world looked to China to save the day. Beijing sent Special Envoy Liu Guijin to negotiations in Addis Ababa in the hopes of brokering a deal on oil revenues and facilitating a final post-independence settlement between the two sides. A month later, the crisis between and within the two Sudans continues. But the episode raises the question of whether China’s evolving Sudan policy reflects a broader evolution in its approach to African and international diplomacy. China’s current relations with the two […]
During a visit to the Persian Gulf countries last month, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for the conclusion of negotiations for a free trade agreement between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. In an email interview, Jean-Francois Seznec, a visiting associate professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, discussed the proposed China-GCC free trade agreement. WPR: How has trade between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries evolved over the past decade? Jean-Francois Seznec: Trade between the GCC and China has grown to about $90 billion in 2010 from $10 billion 10 years ago. China imports […]
The next general election in Israel is officially almost two years away, but the domestic political scene has suddenly erupted into a frenzy of activity, with politicians on all points of the political spectrum preparing for a likely call for early elections. The swirl of speculation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might decide to call early elections started in December, when Netanyahu surprised members of Likud, the party he leads, with a call for a snap primary vote, leading the opposition Kadima party to move up its primary schedule as well. Netanyahu’s decision to rush an internal leadership vote was […]
On Nov. 26, NATO helicopters killed 26 Pakistani soldiers at Pakistan’s Salala checkpoint, mistakenly believing them to be Taliban militants. The incident provoked a furious reaction from Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership as well as from the population at large. In what was already shaping up to be one of the worst years ever for U.S.-Pakistan relations, the Salala incident represented the final straw. Pakistan immediately shut down NATO’s supply lines, ordered an end to U.S. drone strikes in Pakistani territory and boycotted the Bonn Conference on Afghan reconciliation. Shortly thereafter, Pakistan’s Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS) began a […]
BEIJING — China is seeking more-productive ways to deploy the $3.2 trillion it holds in foreign exchange reserves and other national wealth, including rapid expansion of its sovereign wealth management vehicles. With Western investors on the back foot in the past year, Chinese funds have notably expanded their ownership of high-profile strategic overseas assets. While large-scale Chinese foreign investment is seen by many as a cause for geopolitical concern, these entities are becoming increasingly sophisticated and credible, representing one of the most viable mechanisms for restoring balance to global trade and investment flows. Asian sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have accrued […]
Immediately following World War II, the United States undertook a complete restructuring of its foreign policy apparatus. The 1947 National Security Act redesigned the national security bureaucracy of the United States, giving birth to the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of Defense and the United States Air Force. This redesign was necessary because the United States had taken on a global role during World War II, one that the extant bureaucratic structure was insufficient to manage. The title of Dean Acheson’s memoir of his tenure as secretary of state from 1949 to 1953, “Present at the Creation,” captured this moment […]
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez last month appointed as defense minister a general allegedly linked to a Colombian rebel group, raising concerns that the move might jeopardize the two countries’ recent thaw in relations. In an email interview, Adam Isacson, senior associate for regional security at the Washington Office on Latin America, discussed the Colombia-Venezuela security relationship. WPR: What have security relations between Colombia and Venezuela been like historically? Adam Isacson: The two northern Andean countries have never gone to war. But relations, while cordial, have never been fully trustful. Things took a turn for the worse in the past decade, […]