Diplomacy & Politics Archive

In January, the United Arab Emirates arrested a group of Egyptians on suspicion of forming a Muslim Brotherhood cell in the country, prompting tensions with the Muslim Brotherhood-led Egyptian government. In an email interview, Frederic Wehrey, a Middle East program senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discussed Egypt-UAE relations. WPR: What has been the trajectory of relations between Egypt and the UAE since the fall of Hosni Mubarak? Frederic Wehrey: Throughout 2011, bilateral relations were strained by mounting concern in the UAE over Egypt’s potential warming to Iran. For their part, Egypt’s new leaders have cast a […]

In December, Canada announced it was considering alternatives to the long-planned purchase of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet, in part because of the quickly rising expense of the American aircraft. In an email interview, Srdjan Vucetic, an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa specializing in Canadian and American foreign and defense policy, discussed the foreign policy implications for Canada of considering alternatives to the F-35. WPR: How seriously is Canada considering aircraft other than the F-35, and what are the main contenders? Srdjan Vucetic: According to the Public Works and Government Services Canada, the department that in April 2012 […]

On Dec. 5, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia heard testimony from American Enterprise Institute resident scholar Michael Rubin on Iran’s influence in the South Caucasus. While Rubin detailed Iran’s close ties to Armenia and contrasted them to Iran’s uneasy relationship with Azerbaijan, he closed his testimony with unexpected warnings of a potential Georgian alignment with Iran (pdf). “The victory of [Prime Minister] Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream party in October 2012 elections threatens to radically reorient the Republic of Georgia, which, under President Mikheil Saakashvili, has been reliably pro-Western,” cautioned Rubin, adding that Ivanishvili’s pledge to […]

In the most direct admission by a high-ranking Iranian government official that international sanctions are imposing a heavy burden on the economy, Iranian Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari called the latest round of sanctions “crippling” at a gathering of provincial governors on Jan. 10. His remarks were a clear break from his previous statements, in which he downplayed the impact of sanctions. Ghazanfari said the latest round of sanctions have been far more costly than previous ones, pointing in particular to three new sets of sanctions imposed in 2012: financial sanctions, especially those targeting Iran’s central bank; oil export restrictions; […]

Last week’s meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai felt like a last desperate attempt to salvage a crumbling marriage: With the relationship clearly dying, the two sides quibbled over the pace of U.S. disengagement and the extent of future American aid and assistance. But as U.S. involvement in Afghanistan winds down, Americans should already be thinking about what they can learn from their longest war. U.S. national security strategy, as I explained in my book “Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy,” is shaped by the lessons drawn, rightly or wrongly, from previous conflicts, wars […]

The Turkish government recently reported “important progress” in talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group seeking greater Kurdish autonomy from the Turkish government. In an email interview, Gulistan Gurbey of the Free University of Berlin explained the political context and prospects of the talks. WPR: What is the political context, in terms of risks and opportunities, for Turkish Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, the AKP, in pursuing a deal with the PKK now? Gulistan Gurbey: Erdogan’s readiness for a deal with the PKK results from the escalation of […]

In 2010, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave an important speech condemning government censorship, calling for greater Internet freedom and reiterating that freedom of expression was a vital U.S. value. But during the past two weeks, as issues of press censorship in China have become front-page news, the State Department has remained noticeably silent, even as that censorship has impacted the U.S. media. On Dec. 31, 2012, the New York Times announced that the Chinese government had failed to process the journalist visa of one of its Beijing correspondents, Chris Buckley, before his old visa expired. Without a valid […]

Contemporary Vietnam, officially known at the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV), was formed in 1976 after a four-and-a-half decade armed struggle led by the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) against French colonialism and U.S. intervention. When the war against France came to an end in 1954, Vietnam was partitioned, and North Vietnam became Southeast Asia’s first communist state, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam. During the early years of the Democratic Republic, China was its chief provider of foreign assistance as well as its main model of development. For example, Vietnam carried out land reform in the mid-1950s and then reorganized the […]

Yesterday, the president of Sri Lanka formally ordered the removal of the country’s chief justice from office, capping a controversial impeachment process against the chief justice. In an email interview, Erik Jensen, professor of the practice of law and senior research scholar at Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, explained the circumstances surrounding the constitutional crisis. WPR: What are the circumstances surrounding the impeachment of Sri Lanka’s chief justice? Erik Jensen: The critical events surrounding the impeachment rapidly evolved over the course of only four months: from the precipitating act — a Supreme Court ruling […]

For the first time, Colombia’s civil society has been invited to contribute to peace negotiations between the government and the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), with the discussion focused on the root cause of the country’s war: land reform. Hosted by the United Nations and the National University of Colombia, the Forum for Integral Agrarian Development was held in Bogota from Dec. 17 to 19. Not only did the forum place land reform at the center of peace negotiations, at least for the moment, it also has the potential to give the peace process legitimacy in the eyes […]

The Arctic is melting faster than anyone predicted. The World Meteorological Organization announced that ice melt in the Arctic reached a new record in 2012 when an area of ice larger than the continental United States vanished between the months of March and September. The seasonal thaw contributed to a new record in regional shipping as well, with more vessels than ever hauling cargo between Europe and Asia across the top of the world. And international energy companies spent record time searching for oil and gas beneath the frigid waters. But in spite of these trends, the Arctic probably won’t […]

Are we seeing the opening of the third installment of President Barack Obama’s approach to national security? The first iteration, beginning in January 2009, was the attempt to deliberately channel the moderate realism of the George H.W. Bush administration. Obama reached across the aisle to invite Bob Gates to remain as secretary of defense and to recruit Gen. Jim Jones as the national security adviser. The administration backed away from the interventionist tendencies of its predecessor, downplayed the importance of democracy promotion and, borrowing a page from the playbook of former Secretary of State Jim Baker, concentrated efforts on pragmatic […]

Brazil recently launched a $480 million effort to develop precision missiles and rockets, part of a larger effort to revitalize its defense sector. In an email interview, Salvador Raza, a former Brazilian naval officer and current adjunct professor at National Defense University, and Peterson Silva, a doctoral student at the University of Sao Paulo, discussed the state of the Brazilian defense sector. WPR: To what degree is Brazil independent in terms of arms production, and what systems does it need to import? Salvador Raza and Peterson Silva: Brazil has developed significant know-how in the production of relatively sophisticated defense products […]

A Pakistani soldier was killed earlier today near the Line of Control (LOC), the de facto border dividing the disputed Kashmir region between India and Pakistan. The incident follows the death of two Indian soldiers and another Pakistani soldier in the same area in the past week. Over the past five days, a series of cease-fire violations and deadly border clashes has led to rising tensions between India and Pakistan, threatening to reverse a recent trend of cooperation between these two countries, which have fought over Kashmir since their partition. “The incursion of troops across the LOC is an escalation,” […]

Today, Jan. 10, was the day when Hugo Chávez was scheduled to be sworn in for the fourth time as Venezuela’s president. Instead, he is lying in a Cuban hospital, suffering serious complications from cancer surgery, and the country’s legislature, dominated by the president’s loyalists, has delayed the ceremony indefinitely. As Venezuelans grapple with the political uncertainty created by Chávez’s precarious health, the prospect of a post-Chávez era poses complex choices for a number of other countries, not least among them, the United States. During almost 14 years in office, Chávez made anti-Americanism the cornerstone of his foreign policy, working […]

In a year marked by democratic setbacks, Myanmar emerged as an unlikely success story. After nearly half a century of military rule, rights to unionize and protest were restored; opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest; and censorship was eased. Remarkably, these reforms happened because of, rather than despite, longtime dictator Gen. Than Shwe, in particular his decision to hand power willingly over to President Thein Sein. Than Shwe’s voluntary retirement ensured a peaceful transition, but the circumstances of his departure present unique challenges for the quasi-civilian government that has succeeded the junta. The military maintains […]

In mid-December, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff made her first official visit to France amid speculation that the French-made Rafale might beat out competition from the U.S. and Sweden for a Brazilian fighter jet tender. In an email interview, Antonio Ramalho, an expert on Brazil-European Union relations at Brasilia University, explained the obstacles and opportunities facing the France-Brazil bilateral relationship. WPR: With new presidents in office in both countries, what are the main opportunities and obstacles facing the bilateral relationship? Antonio Ramalho: The main opportunities relate to their common views regarding the role of government in actively promoting economic growth through […]