Diplomacy & Politics Archive

On Sunday, Colorado Party candidate Horacio Cartes was elected as the new president of Paraguay, beating his challenger, Efrain Alegre of the governing Liberal Party, by nine percentage points. The Colorado Party also secured a congressional majority and 15 out of 17 governorships. But while Cartes has promised “a new direction” for Paraguay, an expert who spoke with Trend Lines predicted that the vote would have the opposite impact. “The result, although widely expected, is a step back,” Peter Lambert, an expert on Paraguayan politics and an associate dean in the faculty of humanities and social sciences at Bath University, […]

This year has been marked by skirmishes between Indian and Pakistani forces over the countries’ disputed de facto border in Kashmir, as well as an upcoming change of government in Pakistan, each of which may slow down the long and difficult peace process between India and Pakistan. In an email interview, Sadika Hameed, a fellow in the Crisis, Conflict and Cooperation program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has researched cooperation in South Asia, discussed the state of the India-Pakistan peace process. WPR: What is the current state of the India-Pakistan peace process, especially in light of […]

In responding to the growing security crisis emanating from Syria, Jordan finds itself caught between the positions of the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with the U.S. insisting on restraint and gradualism in Syria and the six-member GCC pushing hard to tip the military balance against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Jordan’s King Abdullah must negotiate these competing forces to manage what he sees as an imminent threat in Syria. Seen from Jordan’s perspective, that threat can be explained in terms of three concentric rings of security. The first ring is the growing influx of Syrian refugees, who […]

The United Nations may be on the verge of launching a new wave of peace operations, beginning with a blue helmet force in Mali in July. Further deployments to Somalia and Syria are also on the horizon. Yet the U.N. still has a huge amount of unfinished business to complete in countries where peacekeepers are already deployed, ranging from Haiti to Liberia and Lebanon. As Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his advisers look for the resources for a new generation of missions, they will face pressure to cut costs and downsize existing missions — even if that means leaving some fragile […]

The Obama administration’s response to the steady drumbeat of threats issuing from North Korea in recent weeks could not have been clearer. “The United States will, if needed, defend our allies and defend ourselves,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said during his April 12 visit to South Korea. The American F-22 stealth fighter jets and nuclear-capable B-2 bombers that flew drills over South Korea in March and the two missile-defense ships that sidled up to South Korea earlier this month undoubtedly sent the same message. As a crisis management policy, that message was exactly right. As a strategic signal […]

Even without the tragic bombings at the Boston Marathon this week, it is unlikely that the visit of U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon to Moscow would have generated front-page news. But his meetings — including direct contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to whom Donilon handed over a personal letter from President Barack Obama — could end up being quite significant. After a year in which U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated, Donilon’s visit, which had already been postponed twice, was intended to reverse this decline and break the deadlock created by disagreements over Syria and human rights. Unfortunately, Donilon arrived […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on Cuba’s economic reforms. Part I looked at the reforms to date. Part II examines the challenges facing future efforts. Cuba’s economic reform — or “updating” of the economy, as the Cubans prefer to call it — is aimed at introducing market mechanisms to boost Cuba’s anemic productivity. “We have to erase forever the notion that Cuba is the only country in the world in which people can live without working,” President Raul Castro told the National Assembly in August 2010. So far, the changes being carried out in the […]

On Tuesday, Morocco cancelled its annual joint military exercises with the United States and other international observers just as the “African Lion” war games were set to start, according to U.S. officials. Though no formal explanation for the cancellation was given, the move follows an expression of support from the White House for broadening the mandate of the United Nations observer mission in Western Sahara, MINURSO, to allow it to monitor human rights in the disputed territory, which was annexed by Morocco in the 1970s. According to Human Rights Watch, “Moroccan abuses in Western Sahara particularly target Sahrawis” — residents […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on Cuba’s economic reforms. Part I looks at the reforms to date. Part II will examine the challenges facing future efforts. Since assuming office in July 2006, Cuban President Raul Castro has been on a crusade to bring the Cuban economy into the 21st century. The hyper-centralized model imported from the Soviet Union in the 1960s “doesn’t even work for us anymore,” Fidel Castro admitted. When Raul took over, the Cuban economy had yet to fully recover from the “Special Period” — the deep depression that followed the Soviet Union’s […]

Few people expected Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles to defeat the handpicked successor to the late Hugo Chavez. The larger-than-life former president’s chosen heir, Nicolas Maduro, was, in fact, named the winner of Sunday’s election. But the election results still managed to stun. The two candidates received almost the same number of votes. The opposition is demanding a recount, and Maduro has emerged from the election surprisingly weakened, despite his victory. It is a risky turning point for the country, a challenge to Maduro’s untested skills and a perilous time for Chavismo. Venezuela went to the polls within weeks of […]

The International Energy Agency, an organization comprising 28 industrialized countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) aimed among other things at preserving global energy security, is reportedly seeking to expand energy cooperation with emerging powers. In an email interview, Thijs Van de Graaf, a postdoctoral fellow at the Ghent Institute for International Studies specializing in global energy politics and international institutions, explained the IEA’s expansion drive and its likely effects. WPR: What is motivating the IEA’s push to form an “association” with emerging economies for the first time in its 40-year history? Van de Graaf: When […]

RAQQA, Syria — This dusty, nondescript provincial capital in eastern Syria has all the hallmarks of a city recently captured by rebel forces. A statue of former President Hafez Assad has been pulled down from its plinth, its lips painted red and a pair of horns fixed to its head. Nearby, houses have been reduced to rubble by government air raids, while many that remain standing are pockmarked by small-arms and heavy-weapons fire. One feature, however, sets Raqqa apart from other towns captured by Syria’s rebels: The Syrian rebellion’s traditional flag — green, white and black with three red stars, […]

Last week, Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansur Hadi issued several decrees aimed at restructuring Yemen’s fractious military, including removing the son and two nephews of his predecessor, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, from the military leadership. The removed relatives of the former president were accused of using their positions of power to block reforms. Hadi replaced Saleh as Yemen’s president in 2012 after more than a year of citizen protests, and there have also been growing concerns that members of Saleh’s former regime were biding their time for an opportunity to attempt a return to power. The Associated Press […]

For at least the past decade, China has witnessed tens of thousands of mass social protests per year. In 2005, the last year in which Chinese authorities released figures, there were 87,000 such protests. Scholars and observers have estimated that roughly the same number has occurred in each subsequent year. These protests have been the subject of a great deal of media coverage in the West, with the typical takeaway being that China is a simmering cauldron of unrest, perpetually on the verge of bubbling over. Yet the reality is far more complex. Since 1990, almost none of these movements […]

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen recently undertook a week-long visit to Japan and South Korea, highlighting NATO’s growing role in Asian security in partnership with nonmember governments. Rasmussen is convinced that NATO needs to deepen cooperation with partner states to address global security issues that can negatively impact NATO members’ security. Conversely, NATO has unique capabilities and experience in leading multinational military campaigns, as in Afghanistan and Libya, which can be applied to joint efforts among NATO and partner states to address security concerns in Asia and beyond. Since taking office in August 2009, Rasmussen has tried to induce alliance […]

In early April, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh left Yemen for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, an example of Saudi Arabia’s deep involvement in the political transition of its southern neighbor. In an email interview, Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton, explained the mechanics and the limitations of Saudi Arabia’s influence in Yemen. WPR: What are Saudi Arabia’s main levers of influence in Yemen? Bernard Haykel: Saudi Arabia has long-standing relationships with most, if not all, political, tribal and regional actors in Yemen. The principal form this relationship takes is payments offered by the Saudis […]

Chadian President Idriss Deby announced Sunday that the country would withdraw its troops from northern Mali, after a suicide attack killed three Chadian troops Friday. The announcement reflects the uncertainties that surround Chad’s increasingly prominent role in efforts toward regional stability. In January, Chad deployed soldiers to assist the French military offensive in northern Mali. Chadian forces there, which currently number around 2,400, have seen some of the heaviest fighting in the war. Although French, Chadian, and Malian forces quickly conquered territory after the intervention began, the ensuing months have seen regular bombings and raids by Malian Islamists, as well […]