Diplomacy & Politics Archive

Much American analysis of the past week’s events in Ukraine has tended to focus on the advisability of removing President Viktor Yanukovych and getting Ukraine to sign an Association Agreement, including a free trade pact, with the European Union. But little attention has been paid to what might happen the day after. This thinking echoes the prevailing line a decade ago during the Orange Revolution, which assumed that everything would be fine once the protesters’ demands were met. Instead, the absence of a coherent, sustained Western approach in the aftermath of the Orange Revolution led to its unraveling. Ukrainian Deputy […]

It took just a few days after the agreement between Iran and world powers was announced in Geneva before evidence started to emerge of a significant strengthening of Iran’s position against its rivals. The interim agreement has not gone into effect yet, but the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East is already changing. The so-called Joint Plan of Action, signed on Nov. 24, is meant as a temporary measure, ostensibly freezing conditions in place for six months while negotiators hammer out a permanent deal over Iran’s nuclear program. And yet, the very fact that Iran […]

The violence that erupted during a coca eradication campaign in Apolo, Bolivia, in October was sadly reminiscent of the violence and conflict that characterized the “zero coca” policies of previous Bolivian administrations. By the time the confrontation ended, three members of the security forces and a doctor were dead, and nearly 30 people were wounded. Fortunately, the Apolo deaths are an anomaly, both because such violence is now extremely rare in Bolivia and because forced eradication is only taking place in very limited areas of the country deemed to have excess coca cultivation. Nonetheless, the incident illustrates the complex political […]

The United States has long sustained levels of defense spending that dwarf those of other nations, especially over the past decade. This has allowed the Defense Department and the military services to purchase vast amounts of weapons, vehicles and other gear—as well as services—from private defense firms. But in an era when the U.S. is scaling back its offshore military footprint and struggling to get its fiscal house in order, the amount of money available to sustain the defense industry is in decline. Defense is also subject to approximately half of the current sequestration cuts, which amount to approximately $50 […]

As the United States moves toward the final negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 11 other Pacific Rim countries, some in Congress are seeking greater input into the planned trade deal. If successfully concluded, the TPP would reduce trade barriers and harmonize regulations among partner nations, and would be the Obama administration’s biggest step yet in the direction of trade liberalization. Secretary of State John Kerry has been actively promoting the TPP, which is not yet finalized, in recent public statements. “We still need to unlock the full potential for growth in the Asia Pacific,” he said last month, […]

This year has been one of fluctuating fortunes for South Africa as it seeks to shape Africa’s emerging security architecture and to cement its position as the leading player in continental peace operations. In March, South African troops were withdrawn from the Central African Republic (CAR) after rebel forces overran the capital and ousted the regime of Francois Bozize, which South Africa was defending. The spectacle of South Africa’s humiliating withdrawal, and the deaths of 13 South African troops, jarred with the rather self-congratulatory notions of South African leadership and of South African exceptionalism that had previously informed debates on […]

Hamid Karzai is playing a dangerous game with the security of both Afghanistan and the United States. With NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan ending soon, the Afghan president negotiated a bilateral security agreement with Washington to leave a small U.S. counterterrorism and advisory force in his country. But after convening a national assembly of elders known as the Loya Jirga and gaining their endorsement, Karzai announced that he would not sign the agreement, leaving that to the winner of April’s presidential election. When U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice explained to Karzai that the United States needs the agreement in […]

This summer in Jordan, I met some of the individuals behind the often anonymous news accounts of refugees fleeing Syria’s civil war. In Zaatari refugee camp, I met an accountant who carried his six-day-old daughter across the border in the dead of night after his house was destroyed, and a widow who fled with little more than $11 in her pocket after her husband died. And in a hospital in Amman, I met refugees recovering from torture so brutal that even the healing wounds were painful to look at. Despite the horrors they endured, all the Syrian refugees I met […]

Throughout the Syrian civil war, Moscow has refused to turn its back on one of its few remaining allies in the Middle East, despite the tensions this stubborn support for Damascus has caused with Turkey, some Arab states and the West. The Syrian civil war has presented Moscow with two major challenges. First, the collapse of the Assad regime would likely result in a sharp decline of Russian influence in Damascus, as Syrian opposition leaders have warned that, if they come to power, they will punish Russia and other foreign governments that stood by President Bashar al-Assad. A change of […]

The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum culminated last month with the release of a reform-minded document outlining significant changes in 60 key areas of the Chinese economy. In targeting government monopolies in industry, as well as controls on the flow of capital, goods and people, while calling for upgrading the quality of governance, the document successfully identifies many of the major bottlenecks to continued rapid socio-economic development. Coupled with recent events in the political sphere, the agenda represents the emergence of President Xi Jinping as a leader and the benchmarks by which he will be judged between now and the […]

Last month, the governments of Kenya and Somalia signed a tripartite agreement with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) agreeing in principle to begin working toward the return of the half-million Somali refugees living in Kenya—mostly in refugee camps—to their country of origin. This agreement has caused a great deal of anxiety among the Somali population, particularly those living in Kenya, as many people feel that it is premature to begin to repatriate people to a country that is still at war with itself and where even the most basic services and livelihood prospects are lacking. It is […]

Among the most damning criticisms of human rights law is that when it is needed most, it is nearly impossible to enforce. To understand how this is so, think about someone being detained and beaten by police officers in a police station. This probably happens to thousands of people every day all around the world, and it is a very simple matter in international law. It’s called torture, and it is illegal. Always. That’s the theory, anyway. When a system of law is enforceable in practice, it should be possible to turn a clear legal right into something actionable—say, a […]

China’s responses to the turmoil in Syria over the past two years have been relatively consistent. From the very beginning, Beijing has maintained a firm position that the only solution to the crisis is a political one and that Syria’s sovereignty must be respected. And along with Russia, China has vetoed three United Nations Security Council draft resolutions on Syria. The reason is simple: Beijing objects to external interventions in sovereign states’ internal affairs. There are obvious reasons for this uncompromising adherence to the principles enshrined in the Westphalian system. While the international community’s call for action to stop the […]

Last month, Uganda sought compensation from the U.N. for three Ugandan helicopters that crashed while in transit to the African Union Mission in Somalia, killing seven crew members. In an email interview, Scott Sheeran, a senior lecturer in international human rights, humanitarian law and U.N. law at the School of Law at University of Essex, explained the rules governing U.N. compensation to states contributing to peacekeeping missions. WPR: What rules govern responsibility for damage to U.N. equipment and harm to personnel during peacekeeping operations? Scott Sheeran: The rules for reimbursement to states providing equipment, personnel or support services to a […]

The European Union is notorious for producing reams of official documents. Does it need to churn out another one on the state of the world? In last week’s column, drawing on a new paper published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), I argued that the EU needs an overarching strategy to respond to escalating challenges both on its periphery and at the global level. The existing European Security Strategy, completed 10 years ago this month, remains a pithy analysis of the problems the bloc faced in 2003. But its age shows: It contains just two extremely brief references […]