Diplomacy & Politics Archive

Last June, when Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, abruptly fell to a militia of ultra-radical Islamists barreling in from Syria, the consensus among international observers was that the stunning collapse of Iraqi forces was the result of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s disastrous policies. Maliki’s sectarian regime had undermined the Iraqi military’s unity, preparedness and willingness to fight. To be sure, Maliki’s governing approach has proved devastating for Iraq, but events of the past few days point to a much more ominous explanation. The new evidence coming from the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq suggests that Baghdad’s dismal response to the […]

Last week, a former Syrian military photographer, his identity hidden under a blue hoodie, appeared before the House Foreign Affairs Committee with thousands of photographs allegedly showing widespread torture and killing in Bashar al-Assad’s jails. Known as “Caesar,” the photographer defected last year with a trove of what he says is evidence of mass atrocities in Syria’s uprising-turned-civil-war: 55,000 photographs of more than 11,000 victims—many of them tagged and numbered. The photographs first came to light last January, in a report by three prominent international lawyers who previously prosecuted cases at the criminal tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Sierra […]

As African heads of state gather in Washington this week for the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, the continent looks relatively peaceful, at least in comparison to other regions. Even the agenda of the summit, which according to its website “will advance the Administration’s focus on trade and investment in Africa,” reflects Africa’s relative stability. Though peace and security issues are admittedly included in the agenda, they seem more like a footnote than a priority. It is irrefutable that conflict in Africa has declined significantly over the past two decades and that African economies and the continent’s burgeoning middle classes represent a […]

As President Barack Obama convenes a summit of nearly 50 African leaders in Washington focused mainly on economic opportunity, security and health crises continue to undermine the continent’s potential. South Sudan and the Central African Republic are torn by civil war; Nigeria and Kenya are threatened by terrorist groups; and Sierra Leone and Liberia are suffering from the worst Ebola outbreak to date. But while Western powers like the U.S. and France continue to wield influence, it is increasingly Africa’s leaders who are driving events. This report covers developments in every region of sub-Saharan Africa, drawing on articles since the […]

Global attention remains focused on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, especially in the wake of the tragic downing of the Malaysian commercial airliner MH17. But in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, the ongoing war with Russia is only one of several competing priorities. Attempts to restructure and reform Ukraine’s troubled economy have led to a series of political earthquakes. Two weeks ago, the governing coalition, which had been assembled after the Maidan protests drove former President Viktor Yanukovych from power, was dissolved, and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk offered his resignation. Then last week, Yatsenyuk’s resignation was rejected by Ukraine’s parliament, […]

France has been in the spotlight during the Israel-Hamas war for anti-Semitic attacks that took place on the margins of marches protesting Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. But the conflict has also highlighted continuity with shifts in France’s policy toward Israel as well as its broader foreign policy alignment begun under former President Nicolas Sarkozy. President Francois Hollande’s response to the current conflict, combined with his foreign policy approach to date, suggests the shifts have achieved a bipartisan consensus in Paris, although not an uncontested one. Though an early ally of Israel and crucial partner in the development of Israel’s […]

A recently released paper of the Defense Committee of the U.K. House of Commons on Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the implications for Western security concludes that “events in Crimea and Ukraine represent a ‘game changer’ [that] will have significant implications for resources, force structures, equipment and training.” In addition to their excellent analysis of Russian strategy and tactics, the authors offered useful recommendations meant to inform both the next U.K. Defense and Security Review and the upcoming NATO summit. The alliance will need to adapt its capabilities and approach to collective defense if it is to avoid being caught […]

Last week, the State Department officially reported that Russia had violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty when it tested cruise missiles starting in 2008. Republican lawmakers expressed immediate dismay, building on a steady drumbeat of criticism about the Obama administration’s response to Russian actions in recent months. The report found Russia “in violation of its obligations” under the treaty to not test a ground-launched cruise missile with a maximum range of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. A State Department spokesperson writes in an email to Trend Lines that “this is a serious matter which we have attempted to […]

As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry bustles around the world attempting to staunch conflict after conflict, one question arises with increasing frequency: Why bother? Kerry has certainly had a rough year. Major peace initiatives he had personally pursued, ranging from January’s Syrian peace conference in Geneva to the Israeli-Palestinian talks, have collapsed. His early efforts to defuse the Ukrainian crisis through direct talks with Russia also failed, while Israeli officials have poured scorn on his recent push for a cease-fire in Gaza. At a time when a majority of U.S. voters favor less engagement with foreign problems, Kerry’s ill-fated […]

On July 22, the Indonesian Election Commission declared that Jakarta Gov. Joko “Jokowi” Widodo had won the country’s presidential election. Even if the result is challenged in court, the margin of victory is wide enough for most to assume that Indonesia—the world’s fourth-largest nation, third-largest democracy and largest Muslim-majority country—will inaugurate Jokowi as its seventh president on Oct. 20 after a decade of stable leadership under outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Jokowi’s victory is nothing short of historic. By choosing a 53-year-old former furniture exporter over Prabowo Subianto, a former general and son-in-law of late dictator Suharto, Indonesians have elected […]

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto entered office promising to introduce a new 40,000-member police force called the Gendarmeria. In April 2012, while still a candidate, Pena Nieto said that the force would “work directly with military personnel to provide public security.” However, Pena Nieto has radically scaled back plans for the military-style Gendarmeria, which has since been downgraded to a less ambitious 5,000-member unit that will be part of the Federal Police, Mexico’s existing national police force. Instead of working to build a new heavy-duty force, Mexico is now trying to recalibrate its existing security programs and improve security coordination […]

Last week, Jakarta Gov. Joko Widodo was declared the winner of Indonesia’s presidential election after a hard-fought race with Prabowo Subianto, a former general. Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, is a self-styled populist seen as representing a break with the country’s military-dominated past, but he has also indicated a desire to boost defense spending and build up Indonesia as a regional power. And although Subianto has alleged widespread electoral fraud and so far refused to concede, U.S. leaders have signaled their desire to work with Widodo. In a statement congratulating Widodo on his election and praising Indonesian democracy, U.S. Secretary […]

During the years of George W. Bush’s presidency, members of the Democratic Party’s foreign policy brain trust mocked his administration’s invocation of “coalitions of the willing” as a way to legitimize U.S. action in the international arena. They even derided Bush’s efforts to find other states to endorse U.S. policy as “coalitions of the billing.” Once back in control of the Oval Office, they maintained, Democrats would be able to utilize the United Nations and leading regional organizations, starting with NATO, to generate genuine support on the part of other major countries to back U.S. initiatives. Indeed, the first years […]