Diplomacy & Politics Archive

Last week, Andrew Holness, leader of Jamaica’s opposition Labour Party, was sworn in as prime minister, after winning the Feb. 25 elections on an anti-austerity platform. In an email interview, Jermaine McCalpin, a lecturer at the University of the West Indies, discussed the election and politics in Jamaica. WPR: What were the major policy priorities of the outgoing People’s National Party (PNP) government, and what was its track record while in office? Jermaine McCalpin: The PNP-led government made economic stability one of its primary goals. It successfully negotiated several International Monetary Fund-backed loans, improved the country’s credit rating and lowered […]

The past year has seen the emergence of the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since the end of World War II, with almost 1.3 million asylum-seekers arriving in 2015, mostly on boats from Turkey or North Africa. The vast majority have been Syrians fleeing the devastating collapse of their country, though they have been joined by people from Iraq, Afghanistan, Eritrea and a range of other troubled countries. Those seeking protection have arrived in a divided, disorganized and panicked continent. The inadequacy of Europe’s response has jeopardized not only international refugee norms but, in the recent words of French Prime […]

The United Nations faces two nightmare scenarios in Syria, and U.N. officials have little or no power to choose between them. In one scenario, the current cessation of hostilities between the regime and rebels will break down irrevocably in the coming weeks or months, unleashing a new spiral of killing. That would instigate furious fights inside the Security Council and leave U.N. mediators with no cards left to play. In the second scenario, the cessation of hostilities, which has been in place for 10 days despite multiple violations, could prove to be more durable than most observers expected. That might […]

In this week’s Trend Lines Podcast, Richard Gowan, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and WPR columnist, joins host Peter Dörrie to discuss the changing nature of peacekeeping, including the rise of regional peacekeepers, the role of the United Nations and the politics behind peacekeeping. Listen:Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes | RSS Relevant articles on WPR: Less Talk, More Action for International Peacekeepers in 2016? ‘Carnivores’ Battle ‘Herbivores’ for Future of U.N.’s Peacemaking Soul Technical Fixes Not Enough to Shore Up U.N. Peacekeeping CAR Scandal Reflects U.N. Peacekeeping’s Loss of Strategic Direction Richard Gowan is an associate fellow at […]

After welcoming more than a million refugees into Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approval ratings have seen better days. Discontent with her open-door policy has steadily risen, and so has support for right-wing populists. Her push for a European Union-wide solution seems increasingly likely to fail, while the question of her political survival has crept into headlines at home and abroad. The sheer scale of Europe’s escalating refugee crisis, the most serious since World War II, has been the driving external force behind this unsettling reversal of Merkel’s political fortune. But there has also been a strong domestic one: Horst Seehofer, […]

The migrant and refugee crisis, the dangers lurking beneath the surface of the eurozone, the United Kingdom’s potential exit, war just beyond its borders—the European Union arguably faces the greatest risks in its nearly six-decade history. Linked to all these challenges are some of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which once most enthusiastically embraced the EU project but are now starting to push back against Brussels. An extraordinary conference of the prime ministers of the Visegrad Group—Poland, Hungary, and the Czech and Slovak Republics—on Feb. 15 led to a statement reasserting the members’ insistence on “more effective protection” […]

America’s role in the global security system, first forged in World War II and solidified during the Cold War, is changing. After decades in which the United States was relied upon to manage regional security, other nations are now concluding that they can get by without deferring to Washington. At the same time, America’s adversaries, whether Russia and China or nonstate enemies like al-Qaida and the self-declared Islamic State, have found ways to avoid American strengths and capitalize on American weaknesses. Internally, Americans are less willing to defend far away places at the expense of domestic needs. They increasingly ask […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the potential impact on members’ economies. Last month, following large protests against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in Santiago, Chilean Foreign Minister Heraldo Munoz defended the 12-country trade pact, calling it a politically and economically sound route for Chile. In an email interview, Roland Benedikter, a senior research scholar at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and author of “Chile in Transition: Prospects and Challenges of Latin America’s Forerunner of Development,” discussed the benefits and drawbacks of Chile’s membership in the TPP. WPR: What are the […]

Last week, U.S. warplanes bombed the Libyan town of Sabratha, targeting militants of the self-declared Islamic State. The move is the most recent illustration of the dilemma presented by Libya’s political and security stalemate, characterized by political infighting and militia violence. The Islamic State’s emergence in the country in early 2015 has given the situation regional implications. The United States is weighing its next steps, amid ongoing questions about its role in the 2011 NATO intervention that some see as the source of today’s chaos. The following articles are free for nonsubscribers until March 17. Stabilizing a Chaotic Libya Libya’s […]

On Feb. 5, Ecuador’s president, Rafael Correa, removed the entire high command of the country’s armed forces. The move followed a public dispute about the amount paid by the Ministry of the Environment in 2010 to acquire a military-owned plot of land in the city of Guayaquil, which was incorporated into a natural reserve. After an investigation, the government claimed that it had overpaid by $41 million and would therefore reduce its obligations to the Social Security Institute of the Armed Forces (ISSFA), the original owner of the land. The military publicly rejected the accusations and resisted the reimbursement of […]

If ever there was a case study on the dangers of allowing unlimited presidential terms, it is Zimbabwe. The southern African country shows in stark relief the perils of allowing one man to helm the state indefinitely. It demonstrates how difficult it becomes to remove him the longer he stays in power. And, tragically, it reveals what a high price the people pay when a regime becomes immovably entrenched. In the event anyone doubted the plans of aging Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, he spelled them out as clearly as anyone could a few weeks ago at the African Union summit […]

Last month, Russia announced a $200 million credit for Armenia to buy weapons systems, days after adding four warplanes to its contingent in the country. In an email interview, Michael Cecire, an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, discussed security ties between Russia and Armenia. WPR: What is driving Russia and Armenia’s recent moves to boost bilateral security ties? Michael Cecire: The escalation of the Turkey-Russia crisis is an inescapable factor. The Russian garrison in Gyumri and its airbase outside Yerevan are both close to the Turkey-Armenia border, across from which Turkey has reportedly deployed some units of […]

On Feb. 21, voters went to the polls for the first round of Niger’s presidential election. Like many other West African states, Niger has a two-round system, in which the election goes to a run-off if no candidate wins an absolute majority. Niger faces just such a scenario: According to official results, incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou, who took office in 2011, scored 48.4 percent of the votes. In the second round, scheduled for March 20, Issoufou will face the former speaker of the National Assembly, Hama Amadou, who won 17.8 percent in the first round. Despite the vulnerability that incumbents […]

Over the weekend, The New York Times ran two major articles looking at Hillary Clinton’s role in the Obama administration’s deliberations over whether or not to intervene in the Libyan civil war in 2011. They offer what is, at times, a damning critique that portrays Clinton, then the U.S. secretary of state, as eager to get involved in Libya, but less interested in what might come after the U.S. intervention. A deeper look at the articles, however, suggests a greater indictment of President Barack Obama for his willingness to get involved in Libya but not to see the mission through. […]

Every year in February, the heads of U.S. intelligence agencies present Congress with an unclassified threat assessment. The quality of the document this year is uneven, and it’s clear that intelligence leaders remain conflicted about how much of their knowledge belongs in the public domain. But the annual ritual has some value in pushing the intelligence bureaucracy to clarify its thinking on key issues, and can set a framework for a productive partnership with policymakers. Last week, WPR columnist Michael Cohen argued that the annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, as the report and accompanying congressional testimony is known, amounts to fear-mongering […]

Last week, Chinese engineers broke ground on what press accounts styled “China’s first overseas naval base” in Djibouti. That is a big deal. Djibouti lies in East Africa along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the waterway that connects the western Indian Ocean with the Red Sea. It also adjoins the patrol grounds for the Gulf of Aden counterpiracy mission, in which China’s navy has taken part since 2009. In short, it occupies strategic real estate. China, however, will not be the lone occupant of the seaport. Djibouti is also home to other foreign logistics hubs: The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force operates […]