Domestic Politics Archive

Kim Jong Il’s death and apparent replacement by his 20-something son, Kim Jong Un, has introduced a potentially potent new variable into South Korean politics at a time when the South’s traditional political parties are dissolving. This vulnerability may tempt the North to engage in aggressive provocation, while making it difficult for the South to respond cohesively. For the time being, both capitals are likely to maintain the status quo. South Korea’s policy toward the North is set by its executive, composed of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik. Though the South Korean media often refers […]

Another round of protests is scheduled for Russia on Saturday, raising the question of whether a “color revolution,” this one characterized by the demonstrators’ white ribbons, capable of toppling the government is in the cards. Media attention invariably focuses on mass demonstrations, banner-waving crowds and Twitter-savvy organizers, yet what happens behind the scenes is usually much more important to the outcome of such movements. Protests are not enough, and for all the color revolutions that succeeded over the past decade — in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine — there were also some glaring failures, as in Azerbaijan and Belarus. While Russian […]

It’s too soon to know how the events of this fast-fading year will ultimately reshape our world, but the upheaval we witnessed in 2011 will most assuredly keep future historians ponderously occupied. Indeed, it was a year of uprooting, breaking up and tilling the geopolitical soil — a year that will have mattered in many ways, many of which we don’t yet fully understand, but that clearly represent a turning point. Ten events in particular reshaped the global landscape in 2011. The Arab Uprisings. The spark lit by Tunisian food vendor Mohammed Bouazizi at the end of 2010 set much […]

BEIJING — With multiple indicators pointing to a tangible slowdown in the Chinese economy, continuing signals from senior leaders that the country is entering a new period of more-controlled economic growth, and significant reforms afoot, there is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development. But deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has created a new and less benign backdrop for this change, significantly limiting policy options for reform and reducing the margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, China may be finally forced to confront the […]

Argentines take to the streets to remember ten years since their nation’s disastrous economic meltdown, setting the national Christmas tree ablaze outside the presidential palace. World News Videos by NewsLook

Kim Jong Il is dead, and the world is wondering what to do about it. The task of leading North Korea has fallen to an inexperienced 27-year-old without a major constituency, even as the threat of regime collapse worries both friends and enemies of the largely isolated nation. What should Washington, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo do in order to avoid a crisis? Some observers are arguing that this represents an opportunity for the United States to push hard against the DPRK, hopefully causing it to topple. This would be a mistake; the DPRK is likely not only to survive such […]

Two great uncertainties define the current succession process in North Korea. First, will the new leadership pursue aggressive or moderate foreign policies? Second, how should foreign countries respond to the new situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)? Given how little we know about North Korea’s internal politics, the first question is difficult to address. Although some indicators of future behavior should emerge in coming weeks, the succession process could take years to evolve. The North Korean regime may continue to muddle through, remaining a military threat to South Korea — and other states — and representing a […]

Will the Arab Spring finally end the European Union’s lethargic approach to the southern Mediterranean and lead to more serious support for democratization? Don’t hold your breath. There are three key reasons why “business as usual” with only cosmetic changes is likely to remain the norm. First and foremost is the fact that Europe is in deep economic and financial crisis. With growing discord between France, Britain and Germany, not only the future of the euro but the very foundations of the European Union are at stake. Consumed by its own existential crisis, a serious rethinking of foreign policy is […]

The death of around a dozen people over the weekend in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan, follows months of reported strikes, bombings and other violence in the western part of the country. The exact reasons for the disturbances are unclear. Labor disputes, clan rivalries and resurgent Islamist militancy all seem to be at work. Whatever the causes, Kazakh authorities should heed the warning represented by the violence and ensure that the country’s upcoming legislative elections are free and fair. On Nov. 16, President Nursultan Nazarbayev dissolved Kazakhstan’s national legislature and established Jan. 15, 2012, as the date for the next parliamentary elections. Since […]

North Korean state media is reporting scenes of unrestrained public sadness at the death of long time leader Kim Jong-il. State media reported that Kim, 69, died of a heart attack while traveling on a train.

With Russia embroiled in mass demonstrations following surprisingly tough and contested Duma elections, the breakaway republic of South Ossetia gripped by ongoing political confusion following its own controversial presidential poll, and separatist Abkhazia coming off recent fiercely contested elections, it may be time to re-evaluate more than a few political tropes in Eurasia. The developments are all the more noteworthy in that they come as Georgia, long portrayed by Western supporters as the region’s consummate reformer, faces an unexpected political showdown that is casting the ostensibly democratic republic’s autocratic contours into sharp relief. In a stunning rebuke to Russian Prime […]

South Ossetia was the scene of protests recently after the breakaway province’s high court invalidated the results of a presidential election in which the Russian-backed candidate, Anatoly Bibilov, was defeated. In an email interview, Lincoln Mitchell, an expert on post-Soviet democracy at Colombia University, discussed South Ossetia’s disputed elections. WPR: What is the immediate background to the post-election crisis in South Ossetia? Lincoln Mitchell: South Ossetia is a small polity viewed as independent by Russia, seen as part of Georgia by most of the world, including Europe and the U.S., and in reality almost entirely controlled by Russia and dependent […]

Tens of thousands demonstrate across Russia to protest against alleged election fraud — the largest such crowds in the post-Soviet era. World News Videos by NewsLook

Hundreds have taken to the streets in Guangdong Province and Hong Kong over the death of a villager in custody for his role in land seizure protests. World News Videos by NewsLook

The most striking image from last weekend’s demonstrations in Moscow against the regime of former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is that of protesters holding up iPads and iPhones over their heads, broadcasting the momentous events live over the Internet. The sight of young Russians, bundled up against the Moscow cold, speaking out for democracy via social media brings to mind the wave of political protests that have defined 2011 — from the Arab uprisings in the Middle East, to the Occupy movement in developed economies, and now in Russia. And it raises the question of just how […]

Egyptians went to the polls for day one of the second round of parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Large numbers of voters turned up in nine provinces, but across the country, numbers were lower than in the previous round.

Reacting to violent protests opposing the $4.8 billion Conga mining project in the state of Cajamarca, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala declared a state of emergency last week before replacing more than half of his cabinet and swearing in a new prime minister over the weekend. Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, told Trend Lines that these developments reflect a shift in Humala’s sympathies and strategies. The president is looking to reassure foreign investors, Shifter said, even if that means isolating leftist supporters. “It is hard to interpret this any way other than as a break from the left,” he […]