Domestic Politics Archive

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa decisively won re-election Sunday, with his margin of victory reflecting the popularity of social and economic programs he has enacted that have led some to compare him to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. “Correa’s overwhelming victory shows that a high level of social spending, backed by a huge oil windfall, is a winning political formula,” Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, told Trend Lines in an email interview. “Correa understood that infrastructure projects like roads mean a lot in Ecuadoreans’ daily lives, and are the best way to build political support.” Shifter said that Correa’s challengers […]

With only days to go before Armenia’s Feb. 18 presidential election, all signs point to a victory for incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan. Should he be re-elected as expected, Armenia will most likely maintain its status quo, which saw Yerevan open modestly to the West and Euro-Atlantic initiatives but ultimately remain bound to its longstanding alliance with Moscow. Sargsyan is likely not only to win the election handily but also to easily clear the 50 percent threshold required to prevent a second-round runoff. With Armenia’s opposition badly fractured and handicapped by the noncandidacies of two of the most credible opposition figures […]

In Bangladesh, daily protests over war crimes tribunals are turning deadly. Thirteen people have died as thousands have demonstrated against what is perceived as a culture of impunity for war crimes allegedly committed during Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence from Pakistan. Demonstrations have intensified since they began 10 days ago, after Abdul Quader Mollah, a leader of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, was convicted of war crimes and sentenced to life in prison. Many protesters see the life sentence as too lenient and are demanding the death penalty for Mollah. Meanwhile, as the government continues to prosecute defendants accused of committing […]

Tunisia’s young democracy has never seemed to be in so much jeopardy. The political opposition is accusing the ruling Ennahda party of the assassination of Chokri Belaid, a popular figure on the political left who was murdered Feb. 6 in front of his home, and hundreds of Tunisians are holding ongoing protests to demand the government’s resignation. Several parties, including one of Ennahda’s coalition partners, are threatening to pull out of the Constituent Assembly, which is tasked with rewriting Tunisia’s constitution. The current political turmoil is an outgrowth of Tunisia’s many challenges, which have multiplied over the past few months […]

The early contests for power following the Arab uprisings proved rather easy for the Muslim Brotherhood. What has come since then, however, has been much more challenging, and the Brotherhood’s difficulties are only growing. Where the Brotherhood has not won, it is facing reversals. Where it did come to power, its leaders are finding that governing, and even keeping a country from going off the rails these days, is far more complicated than winning elections. In Egypt and Tunisia, Brotherhood-dominated governments are on the defensive. In Jordan, the Brotherhood’s strategy seems to be failing. In Syria, amid the carnage, the […]

As the Arab Spring enters its third year, several trends have become clear. The world now knows that massive and effective popular opposition to authoritarian regimes can coalesce with stunning speed and little advance warning. In an era of interconnectedness and information saturation, revolution often moves in waves as the collapse of one dictator inspires the opponents of other ones. Getting rid of dictators may be bloody and difficult, as in Libya and Syria, but even when it’s relatively quick, as in Egypt and Tunisia, the transition to a stable post-authoritarian system is extraordinarily difficult and fraught with the potential […]

On Jan. 30, the Philippine government announced plans to buy 12 South Korean fighter jets — its first new fighter jet purchase since retiring the last of its U.S.-designed F-5 fleet in 2005. Chung-in Moon, a political science professor at South Korea’s Yonsei University, described the state of the Korean aerospace industry and what the purchase means in an email interview. WPR: What is the current state of South Korea’s aerospace sector?Chung-in Moon: The South Korean aerospace industry underwent a major restructuring in 1999 following the Asian financial crisis. Daewoo Heavy Machinery, Samsung Aviation (now Samsung Techwin) and Hyundai Aerospace […]

Friday was Iraq’s bloodiest day in more than two months, as suspected Sunni insurgents targeted crowded Shiite areas, bombing a pet market, a vegetable market and a group of taxi vans waiting for passengers returning from prayers. But while there has been an increase in such deadly attacks in recent weeks, Douglas Ollivant, senior vice president at the global strategic consulting firm Mantid International and a senior fellow in the New America Foundation’s security studies program, emphasized that they are unlikely to escalate into a broader sectarian civil war. “Until and unless we see the return of Shia militias going […]

Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa began his visit to India today amid protests over recent statements he made that appeared to rule out political autonomy for Sri Lanka’s Tamil ethnic minority. While the president had previously promised to delegate authority to the provinces, as required by the constitution, while also broadening dialogue with the Tamils, he said in a speech for Sri Lankan Independence Day on Monday that it would not be practical for the island country “to have different administrations based on ethnicity.” Alan Keenan, project director and senior analyst for Sri Lanka at the International Crisis Group, told […]

It was months in the making, persistently delayed and then twice rescheduled. But when British Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech on the future of the U.K.’s relationship with the European Union finally arrived late last month, at least it did not lack ambition. Cameron hopes to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU and push forward a process of reform for the whole union. His aim is to secure a looser relationship with a streamlined Europe, one that all but the more strident europhobes in his party and the public would prefer to full departure from the bloc. Should the Conservatives […]

Prior to the December inauguration of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, the United States intervened to halt the rise of Gen. Moises Garcia Ochoa, who was expected to become Mexico’s next minister of defense, according to reporting by the New York Times. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Anthony Wayne met with Pena Nieto’s senior aides to express American concerns over the possible promotion of the general, including suspicions that he had ties to drug traffickers. “This is not unprecedented, and it doesn’t just apply to Mexico. The United States, over the decades, has done this with a number of Latin American […]

With middle-class dissatisfaction growing and her modus operandi becoming better understood, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is finding the crucial challenge of controlling the political narrative in Argentina increasingly difficult, and she may not be able to pin the blame for her country’s woes on outside forces for much longer. That’s a key part of the strategy that has proved so effective for more than a decade of Kirchner administrations, beginning with the late Nestor Kirchner and continuing with his widow, the current president. Every few days, Fernandez faces a new controversy, and each time she responds by singling out […]

Last week, a trial court in Guatemala City decided that there was enough evidence to send Efrain Rios Montt, the former Guatemalan general who headed a military dictatorship from 1982 to 1983, and Jose Rodriguez Sanchez, Rios Montt’s former head of military intelligence, to trial. Rios Montt, along with other military chiefs, is accused of masterminding a scorched earth campaign against the Ixil Mayan group in northern Guatemala that resulted in more than 1,700 deaths in 1982-1983. It is the first time a former head of state in the Americas will stand trial for genocide. While the trial in Guatemala […]

As Hillary Clinton prepares to step down as secretary of state, the general consensus among the punditocracy is that she was successful in helping to restore America’s image in the world: A “rockstar diplomat,” Clinton was willing to put in the frequent flyer miles to help repair or rebuild frayed ties between Washington and many other countries. However, she is not viewed as a transformational figure for U.S. diplomacy, nor can she point to a particularly dramatic event, such as a comprehensive Middle East peace settlement, as a result of her tenure in office. Some of the comments in this […]

Uganda’s parliament announced plans earlier this week to summon the country’s defense minister and military chief to clarify recent statements attributed to them that seemed to threaten a military takeover of the government. In addition to reputed warnings by Defense Minister Crispus Kiyonga and military chief Gen. Aronda Nyakairima that the military was monitoring legislators’ actions and might take control if they did not make sufficient progress, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni reportedly warned members of parliament that the military would not allow “confusion” in parliament to continue. In an email interview, Adam Branch, a senior research fellow at the Makerere […]