Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
The ICJ’s middle-ground provisional ruling on whether Israel may be committing genocide in Gaza was not surprising given the specific difficulties of proving genocide. Still, to point out that the ruling falls short of what either party might have wanted would be to miss its wider implications that go far beyond the Gaza conflict.
Russia’s role in allowing Azerbaijan to conduct its final invasion on Nagorno-Karabakh last year, despite its peacekeeping role there, has sparked a profound sense of betrayal in Armenia. That in turn has created an opportunity for the EU to forge stronger ties with Yerevan and reshape the geopolitical orientation of the South Caucasus.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has abandoned the country’s long-standing policy of seeking peaceful unification with the South. This substantial change in Pyongyang’s inter-Korean policy should not be regarded as mere bluster or rhetoric. It marks a significant and dangerous shift in North Korea’s posture toward the South.
Efforts to explain why relations between Russia and the EU collapsed over the past decade have taken a closer look at previously neglected historical factors. But one development that perhaps represented the first step toward the current crisis between Moscow and Europe is overlooked: the Moldova-Transnistria war over 30 years ago.
At a time when the global order is in flux, it is notable that the drivers of many of the core security challenges in the world today are not, in fact, states. From Hamas to the Houthis movement, to Taiwan and Kosovo, the world is dotted by “quasi-” or “de facto” states. What does that mean for the role of the nation-state?
On Dec. 28, South Africa filed a claim with the International Court of Justice alleging that Israel’s actions in Gaza since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7 amount to genocide against the Palestinian population. Both Israel and the U.S. have called the case a distraction. They’re right, but not for the reasons they claim.
For those concerned with the bottom-line humanitarian outcomes in Gaza, is a cease-fire ultimately the best way forward? The reality is that cease-fires often fail and for the most part have limited and at times even adverse impacts. There are, however, certain circumstances when cease-fires can make a difference.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, China has adopted a position that is surprisingly critical of Israel. What’s driving the shift? One overlooked factor is the relative collapse of the major pillar underpinning Sino-Israeli ties since even before they formally established diplomatic relations: trade in technology.
With the international system stretched to the breaking point, the world’s attention remains focused on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the questions of moral legitimacy they raise. However, conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia are also setting precedents that will further erode the moral and legal constraints on state and nonstate actors.
All too often, calls for nonviolent action in Palestine ignore how even a fully rejuvenated Palestinian nonviolent movement is unlikely to succeed on its own. Instead, the best hope for progress is the emergence of parallel nonviolent mobilization among Israelis, providing a necessary ally for change that would embody sustainable peace.
In the final weeks of 2023, three Scandinavian countries signed defense agreements with Washington, further strengthening U.S. military ties with a region of the world that has long favored nonalignment. The deals are proof of just how deeply Russia’s war against Ukraine has transformed the strategic landscape across Europe.
At the height of enthusiasm for globalization, many policymakers convinced themselves that the benefits of a more connected world would encourage potential spoilers to accept a stable international order. The same complacency was visible in the recent shock over attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement on merchant shipping in the Red Sea.
The events of the past three months serve as a painful reminder that the truths of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict do not go away simply because they are ignored. Acknowledgment of the conflict’s realities is necessary to avoid further repetition of violence and to take steps toward a resolution that minimizes future killing.