If the global scramble to replace Russia’s oil in the wake of its Ukraine invasion had occurred a few years from now, instead of today, diplomats would be turning not only to Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela for potential new sources of oil, but also to another, perhaps unexpected country: Guyana, a minuscule South American nation that is now in the process of becoming a petroleum powerhouse. In the history of the world, few moments like this—in which an impoverished country suddenly discovers that it possesses untold wealth—have ever occurred. And yet, that’s what happened in Guyana in 2017, when ExxonMobil [...]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought some clarity to regional realignments and strategic partnerships in the Middle East, with the changing relationship between the United States and the oil-producing members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in particular coming into sharp focus. War has a tendency to cause states to pay closer attention to and accelerate policy decisions on issues that they might otherwise prefer to defer action on or to leave ambiguous or unresolved. But after more than a week of fighting in Ukraine, one thing has become clear: Washington’s partners in the Middle East are increasingly confident about [...]
The early results are in and could hardly be clearer: The much-dreaded Russian version of a shock-and-awe campaign to subdue Ukraine has failed. No one knows exactly what will happen next, but the Ukrainian people have just offered a robust rebuttal to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that they are not members of a real nation. As the entire world has now seen from the first days of the conflict, their patriotism and valor in standing up to a far larger and better-armed Russian adversary caused the invaders to bog down and lose momentum. Most observers, not least Putin himself, [...]
